**Recent developments have sharply reduced prospects for a final U.S.-Iran agreement endorsed by a UN Security Council resolution before December 31, 2026.** The June 17, 2026, memorandum of understanding outlined a 60-day window for nuclear and sanctions talks leading to such a resolution, but the framework expired in August without a deal, amid resumed hostilities, renewed strikes, and the revocation of U.S. sanctions waivers on Iranian oil. IAEA access to Iranian sites has been restricted, and Russia and China vetoed a U.S. bid in mid-September to extend UN monitoring of Iran’s nuclear program. Iran has since communicated strict conditions for resuming negotiations through mediators, while tensions persist over the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions relief. With roughly three months left and no active pathway to a comprehensive accord, trader consensus assigns an 86.5% probability to “No,” reflecting the collapse of diplomatic momentum and structural barriers at the Security Council.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
14% 確率
$242,757 Vol.
$242,757 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
14% 確率
$242,757 Vol.
$242,757 Vol.
2026/12/31
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Recent developments have sharply reduced prospects for a final U.S.-Iran agreement endorsed by a UN Security Council resolution before December 31, 2026.** The June 17, 2026, memorandum of understanding outlined a 60-day window for nuclear and sanctions talks leading to such a resolution, but the framework expired in August without a deal, amid resumed hostilities, renewed strikes, and the revocation of U.S. sanctions waivers on Iranian oil. IAEA access to Iranian sites has been restricted, and Russia and China vetoed a U.S. bid in mid-September to extend UN monitoring of Iran’s nuclear program. Iran has since communicated strict conditions for resuming negotiations through mediators, while tensions persist over the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions relief. With roughly three months left and no active pathway to a comprehensive accord, trader consensus assigns an 86.5% probability to “No,” reflecting the collapse of diplomatic momentum and structural barriers at the Security Council.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ET
音量
$242,757終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Recent developments have sharply reduced prospects for a final U.S.-Iran agreement endorsed by a UN Security Council resolution before December 31, 2026.** The June 17, 2026, memorandum of understanding outlined a 60-day window for nuclear and sanctions talks leading to such a resolution, but the framework expired in August without a deal, amid resumed hostilities, renewed strikes, and the revocation of U.S. sanctions waivers on Iranian oil. IAEA access to Iranian sites has been restricted, and Russia and China vetoed a U.S. bid in mid-September to extend UN monitoring of Iran’s nuclear program. Iran has since communicated strict conditions for resuming negotiations through mediators, while tensions persist over the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions relief. With roughly three months left and no active pathway to a comprehensive accord, trader consensus assigns an 86.5% probability to “No,” reflecting the collapse of diplomatic momentum and structural barriers at the Security Council.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$242,757終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Recent developments have sharply reduced prospects for a final U.S.-Iran agreement endorsed by a UN Security Council resolution before December 31, 2026.** The June 17, 2026, memorandum of understanding outlined a 60-day window for nuclear and sanctions talks leading to such a resolution, but the framework expired in August without a deal, amid resumed hostilities, renewed strikes, and the revocation of U.S. sanctions waivers on Iranian oil. IAEA access to Iranian sites has been restricted, and Russia and China vetoed a U.S. bid in mid-September to extend UN monitoring of Iran’s nuclear program. Iran has since communicated strict conditions for resuming negotiations through mediators, while tensions persist over the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions relief. With roughly three months left and no active pathway to a comprehensive accord, trader consensus assigns an 86.5% probability to “No,” reflecting the collapse of diplomatic momentum and structural barriers at the Security Council.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問