Persistent opposition from G7 members, driven by Russia's ongoing conflict with Ukraine and reinforced by recent joint statements on sanctions and territorial integrity, underpins the 97.7% trader consensus against rejoining before 2027. Unanimous consent among the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan is required, and European leaders have conditioned any readmission on substantial concessions tied to a durable peace settlement. Russian President Vladimir Putin has publicly dismissed the group's relevance, citing BRICS economic growth and stating Moscow has no interest in returning. While U.S. advocacy for engagement exists, it has not altered the broader stance. A comprehensive Ukraine resolution addressing security guarantees or unexpected leadership transitions among members before the December 2026 deadline remain the main factors that could still shift probabilities.