New People (NL) operates as a Kremlin-aligned systemic opposition party in Russia's mixed-member proportional electoral system, where half the 450 Duma seats come from party-list voting and half from single-member districts. Recent polling from state-affiliated firms places its support in the 8–11% range for the party list, consistent with modest proportional gains, while independent surveys show somewhat higher figures around 10–17% among decided voters. Its current 15-seat faction and limited single-member district infrastructure constrain upside potential. The exclusion of Yabloko from the ballot offers a modest tailwind by redirecting some protest votes, yet administrative controls and competition from larger systemic parties such as the CPRF and LDPR limit broader breakthroughs. Trader consensus on fewer than 35 seats reflects these structural barriers, though stronger-than-expected single-member results or late shifts in turnout could still alter the final allocation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日35未満 94%
35～44 5.7%
45～54 <1%
55〜64 <1%
$121,421 Vol.
$121,421 Vol.
2026/09/20
35未満
94%
35～44
6%
45～54
1%
55〜64
1%
65〜74
<1%
75〜84
<1%
85以上
<1%
35未満 94%
35～44 5.7%
45～54 <1%
55〜64 <1%
$121,421 Vol.
$121,421 Vol.
2026/09/20
35未満
$31,164 Vol.
94%
35～44
$25,910 Vol.
6%
45～54
$16,195 Vol.
1%
55〜64
$13,480 Vol.
1%
65〜74
$13,231 Vol.
<1%
75〜84
$8,273 Vol.
<1%
85以上
$13,167 Vol.
<1%
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.New People (NL) operates as a Kremlin-aligned systemic opposition party in Russia's mixed-member proportional electoral system, where half the 450 Duma seats come from party-list voting and half from single-member districts. Recent polling from state-affiliated firms places its support in the 8–11% range for the party list, consistent with modest proportional gains, while independent surveys show somewhat higher figures around 10–17% among decided voters. Its current 15-seat faction and limited single-member district infrastructure constrain upside potential. The exclusion of Yabloko from the ballot offers a modest tailwind by redirecting some protest votes, yet administrative controls and competition from larger systemic parties such as the CPRF and LDPR limit broader breakthroughs. Trader consensus on fewer than 35 seats reflects these structural barriers, though stronger-than-expected single-member results or late shifts in turnout could still alter the final allocation.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
マーケット開始日： Sep 1, 2026, 8:54 PM ET
音量
$121,421終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Sep 1, 2026, 8:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.New People (NL) operates as a Kremlin-aligned systemic opposition party in Russia's mixed-member proportional electoral system, where half the 450 Duma seats come from party-list voting and half from single-member districts. Recent polling from state-affiliated firms places its support in the 8–11% range for the party list, consistent with modest proportional gains, while independent surveys show somewhat higher figures around 10–17% among decided voters. Its current 15-seat faction and limited single-member district infrastructure constrain upside potential. The exclusion of Yabloko from the ballot offers a modest tailwind by redirecting some protest votes, yet administrative controls and competition from larger systemic parties such as the CPRF and LDPR limit broader breakthroughs. Trader consensus on fewer than 35 seats reflects these structural barriers, though stronger-than-expected single-member results or late shifts in turnout could still alter the final allocation.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
音量
$121,421終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Sep 1, 2026, 8:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...New People (NL) operates as a Kremlin-aligned systemic opposition party in Russia's mixed-member proportional electoral system, where half the 450 Duma seats come from party-list voting and half from single-member districts. Recent polling from state-affiliated firms places its support in the 8–11% range for the party list, consistent with modest proportional gains, while independent surveys show somewhat higher figures around 10–17% among decided voters. Its current 15-seat faction and limited single-member district infrastructure constrain upside potential. The exclusion of Yabloko from the ballot offers a modest tailwind by redirecting some protest votes, yet administrative controls and competition from larger systemic parties such as the CPRF and LDPR limit broader breakthroughs. Trader consensus on fewer than 35 seats reflects these structural barriers, though stronger-than-expected single-member results or late shifts in turnout could still alter the final allocation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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