Ongoing hostilities and the absence of any sustained ceasefire continue to block a Ukrainian peace referendum, as martial law prohibits such votes and the constitution requires secure conditions plus parliamentary or popular approval for territorial matters. Recent U.S.-mediated diplomatic contacts in September 2026 have restarted stalled talks without producing a breakthrough or Russian concessions on core demands, while battlefield realities and Ukrainian public resistance to major territorial adjustments further reduce prospects. Traders assign a 97.5% probability against passage before 2027 because a qualifying referendum would demand rapid diplomatic success, a verified multi-month ceasefire, and legislative changes—all unlikely in the remaining months. A sudden trilateral agreement yielding an immediate, durable ceasefire could still shift the timeline.