Taiwan’s ongoing military modernization, including recent joint drills with attack drones and precision missiles inspected by President William Lai in mid-September 2026, alongside reduced PLA air incursions and persistent but non-escalatory PRC coast guard patrols, supports trader views that a full-scale invasion remains unlikely before mid-2027. Preparations for an upcoming Trump-Xi summit, where Taiwan features as a core issue, and assessments that the PLA currently lacks sufficient amphibious lift, air-sea control, and sustainment for a successful cross-strait operation further anchor the 92.5% implied probability on “No.” Analysts note Beijing’s preference for gray-zone coercion and electoral influence operations over immediate kinetic action, though sustained U.S. arms deliveries and Taiwanese defense spending could shift dynamics if tensions rise sharply.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
8% 確率
$450,575 Vol.
$450,575 Vol.
2027/06/30
はい
8% 確率
$450,575 Vol.
$450,575 Vol.
2027/06/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan’s ongoing military modernization, including recent joint drills with attack drones and precision missiles inspected by President William Lai in mid-September 2026, alongside reduced PLA air incursions and persistent but non-escalatory PRC coast guard patrols, supports trader views that a full-scale invasion remains unlikely before mid-2027. Preparations for an upcoming Trump-Xi summit, where Taiwan features as a core issue, and assessments that the PLA currently lacks sufficient amphibious lift, air-sea control, and sustainment for a successful cross-strait operation further anchor the 92.5% implied probability on “No.” Analysts note Beijing’s preference for gray-zone coercion and electoral influence operations over immediate kinetic action, though sustained U.S. arms deliveries and Taiwanese defense spending could shift dynamics if tensions rise sharply.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
音量
$450,575終了日
2027/07/01マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan’s ongoing military modernization, including recent joint drills with attack drones and precision missiles inspected by President William Lai in mid-September 2026, alongside reduced PLA air incursions and persistent but non-escalatory PRC coast guard patrols, supports trader views that a full-scale invasion remains unlikely before mid-2027. Preparations for an upcoming Trump-Xi summit, where Taiwan features as a core issue, and assessments that the PLA currently lacks sufficient amphibious lift, air-sea control, and sustainment for a successful cross-strait operation further anchor the 92.5% implied probability on “No.” Analysts note Beijing’s preference for gray-zone coercion and electoral influence operations over immediate kinetic action, though sustained U.S. arms deliveries and Taiwanese defense spending could shift dynamics if tensions rise sharply.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$450,575終了日
2027/07/01マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Taiwan’s ongoing military modernization, including recent joint drills with attack drones and precision missiles inspected by President William Lai in mid-September 2026, alongside reduced PLA air incursions and persistent but non-escalatory PRC coast guard patrols, supports trader views that a full-scale invasion remains unlikely before mid-2027. Preparations for an upcoming Trump-Xi summit, where Taiwan features as a core issue, and assessments that the PLA currently lacks sufficient amphibious lift, air-sea control, and sustainment for a successful cross-strait operation further anchor the 92.5% implied probability on “No.” Analysts note Beijing’s preference for gray-zone coercion and electoral influence operations over immediate kinetic action, though sustained U.S. arms deliveries and Taiwanese defense spending could shift dynamics if tensions rise sharply.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問