Google’s repeated delays on the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship, first teased at I/O in May 2026 with a June target that slipped past July, remain the dominant factor behind the 43.5% market-implied probability of no Pro release by November 1. The model has stayed in limited partner testing without a public launch or firm timeline, while Google has instead shipped frequent Flash variants—including 3.8 Flash in early September—and begun pre-training on Gemini 4. Traders appear to weigh Google’s history of conservative flagship pacing and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic as signals that a near-term Pro debut is unlikely, with any October window hinging on an unexpected acceleration in testing or a surprise announcement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日11月1日までにリリースなし 37%
10月12日～10月18日 16%
9月28日〜10月4日 13.7%
10月19日〜10月25日 6.1%
$42,741 Vol.
$42,741 Vol.
2026/09/13
9月7日〜9月13日
2%
9月14日～9月20日
4%
9月21日〜9月27日
6%
9月28日〜10月4日
14%
10月5日～10月11日
3%
10月12日～10月18日
16%
10月19日〜10月25日
6%
10月26日～11月1日
3%
11月1日までにリリースなし
37%
11月1日までにリリースなし 37%
10月12日～10月18日 16%
9月28日〜10月4日 13.7%
10月19日〜10月25日 6.1%
$42,741 Vol.
$42,741 Vol.
2026/09/13
9月7日〜9月13日
$1,349 Vol.
2%
9月14日～9月20日
$400 Vol.
4%
9月21日〜9月27日
$541 Vol.
6%
9月28日〜10月4日
$506 Vol.
14%
10月5日～10月11日
$373 Vol.
3%
10月12日～10月18日
$749 Vol.
16%
10月19日〜10月25日
$427 Vol.
6%
10月26日～11月1日
$451 Vol.
3%
11月1日までにリリースなし
$36,653 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s repeated delays on the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship, first teased at I/O in May 2026 with a June target that slipped past July, remain the dominant factor behind the 43.5% market-implied probability of no Pro release by November 1. The model has stayed in limited partner testing without a public launch or firm timeline, while Google has instead shipped frequent Flash variants—including 3.8 Flash in early September—and begun pre-training on Gemini 4. Traders appear to weigh Google’s history of conservative flagship pacing and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic as signals that a near-term Pro debut is unlikely, with any October window hinging on an unexpected acceleration in testing or a surprise announcement.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ET
音量
$42,741終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s repeated delays on the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship, first teased at I/O in May 2026 with a June target that slipped past July, remain the dominant factor behind the 43.5% market-implied probability of no Pro release by November 1. The model has stayed in limited partner testing without a public launch or firm timeline, while Google has instead shipped frequent Flash variants—including 3.8 Flash in early September—and begun pre-training on Gemini 4. Traders appear to weigh Google’s history of conservative flagship pacing and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic as signals that a near-term Pro debut is unlikely, with any October window hinging on an unexpected acceleration in testing or a surprise announcement.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$42,741終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Google’s repeated delays on the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship, first teased at I/O in May 2026 with a June target that slipped past July, remain the dominant factor behind the 43.5% market-implied probability of no Pro release by November 1. The model has stayed in limited partner testing without a public launch or firm timeline, while Google has instead shipped frequent Flash variants—including 3.8 Flash in early September—and begun pre-training on Gemini 4. Traders appear to weigh Google’s history of conservative flagship pacing and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic as signals that a near-term Pro debut is unlikely, with any October window hinging on an unexpected acceleration in testing or a surprise announcement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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