Meta’s internal “Watermelon” frontier large language model remains in training as of early September 2026, following Meta Superintelligence Labs chief Alexandr Wang’s July update that it had reached parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on unspecified benchmarks while using roughly ten times the compute of the prior Muse Spark (Avocado) model. August reporting from The Information cited internal documents targeting an October public release, potentially powering the consumer Hatch AI agent platform, though Meta has not issued an official announcement or external benchmark results. The September 3 rollout of Muse Spark 1.3, which Wang described as competitive with leading Anthropic and OpenAI models in coding and agentic tasks, underscores Meta’s rapid iteration pace and heavy infrastructure spending. Traders are watching for any slippage in the October window or confirmation via developer access, open benchmarks, or executive statements that could shift implied probabilities around the end-of-month resolution dates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$12,303 Vol.
2026/09/30
9月30日
5%
10月31日
74%
11月30日
93%
$12,303 Vol.
9月30日
$3,394 Vol.
5%
10月31日
$6,384 Vol.
74%
11月30日
$2,524 Vol.
93%
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s internal “Watermelon” frontier large language model remains in training as of early September 2026, following Meta Superintelligence Labs chief Alexandr Wang’s July update that it had reached parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on unspecified benchmarks while using roughly ten times the compute of the prior Muse Spark (Avocado) model. August reporting from The Information cited internal documents targeting an October public release, potentially powering the consumer Hatch AI agent platform, though Meta has not issued an official announcement or external benchmark results. The September 3 rollout of Muse Spark 1.3, which Wang described as competitive with leading Anthropic and OpenAI models in coding and agentic tasks, underscores Meta’s rapid iteration pace and heavy infrastructure spending. Traders are watching for any slippage in the October window or confirmation via developer access, open benchmarks, or executive statements that could shift implied probabilities around the end-of-month resolution dates.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
音量
$12,303終了日
2026/11/30マーケット開始日
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s internal “Watermelon” frontier large language model remains in training as of early September 2026, following Meta Superintelligence Labs chief Alexandr Wang’s July update that it had reached parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on unspecified benchmarks while using roughly ten times the compute of the prior Muse Spark (Avocado) model. August reporting from The Information cited internal documents targeting an October public release, potentially powering the consumer Hatch AI agent platform, though Meta has not issued an official announcement or external benchmark results. The September 3 rollout of Muse Spark 1.3, which Wang described as competitive with leading Anthropic and OpenAI models in coding and agentic tasks, underscores Meta’s rapid iteration pace and heavy infrastructure spending. Traders are watching for any slippage in the October window or confirmation via developer access, open benchmarks, or executive statements that could shift implied probabilities around the end-of-month resolution dates.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$12,303終了日
2026/11/30マーケット開始日
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Meta’s internal “Watermelon” frontier large language model remains in training as of early September 2026, following Meta Superintelligence Labs chief Alexandr Wang’s July update that it had reached parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on unspecified benchmarks while using roughly ten times the compute of the prior Muse Spark (Avocado) model. August reporting from The Information cited internal documents targeting an October public release, potentially powering the consumer Hatch AI agent platform, though Meta has not issued an official announcement or external benchmark results. The September 3 rollout of Muse Spark 1.3, which Wang described as competitive with leading Anthropic and OpenAI models in coding and agentic tasks, underscores Meta’s rapid iteration pace and heavy infrastructure spending. Traders are watching for any slippage in the October window or confirmation via developer access, open benchmarks, or executive statements that could shift implied probabilities around the end-of-month resolution dates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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