Google's ongoing delays for the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro model, originally slated for June or July 2026 after I/O teasers, explain the market's strong 88.5% implied probability of no Pro release by September 30. The company has instead prioritized iterative releases of lighter variants, including Gemini 3.8 Flash and 3.8 Live models announced September 15 with enhanced voice reasoning and agentic features, while 3.5 Pro remains in partner testing amid shortfalls on coding benchmarks and long-horizon tasks. Training has begun on the more ambitious Gemini 4, and historical patterns of timeline slips plus the absence of credible near-term announcements reinforce trader consensus around an October median release window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月30日までにリリースなし 89%
9月23日 4.2%
9月24日 3.5%
9月30日 3.3%
$105,993 Vol.
$105,993 Vol.
2026/09/18
9月18日
<1%
9月19日
1%
9月20日
1%
9月21日
2%
9月22日
3%
9月23日
4%
9月24日
3%
9月25日
<1%
9月26日
<1%
9月27日
<1%
9月28日
<1%
9月29日
3%
9月30日
3%
9月30日までにリリースなし
89%
9月30日までにリリースなし 89%
9月23日 4.2%
9月24日 3.5%
9月30日 3.3%
$105,993 Vol.
$105,993 Vol.
2026/09/18
9月18日
$310 Vol.
<1%
9月19日
$307 Vol.
1%
9月20日
$307 Vol.
1%
9月21日
$537 Vol.
2%
9月22日
$584 Vol.
3%
9月23日
$469 Vol.
4%
9月24日
$594 Vol.
3%
9月25日
$303 Vol.
<1%
9月26日
$305 Vol.
<1%
9月27日
$307 Vol.
<1%
9月28日
$508 Vol.
<1%
9月29日
$538 Vol.
3%
9月30日
$868 Vol.
3%
9月30日までにリリースなし
$90,543 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's ongoing delays for the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro model, originally slated for June or July 2026 after I/O teasers, explain the market's strong 88.5% implied probability of no Pro release by September 30. The company has instead prioritized iterative releases of lighter variants, including Gemini 3.8 Flash and 3.8 Live models announced September 15 with enhanced voice reasoning and agentic features, while 3.5 Pro remains in partner testing amid shortfalls on coding benchmarks and long-horizon tasks. Training has begun on the more ambitious Gemini 4, and historical patterns of timeline slips plus the absence of credible near-term announcements reinforce trader consensus around an October median release window.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
音量
$105,993終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's ongoing delays for the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro model, originally slated for June or July 2026 after I/O teasers, explain the market's strong 88.5% implied probability of no Pro release by September 30. The company has instead prioritized iterative releases of lighter variants, including Gemini 3.8 Flash and 3.8 Live models announced September 15 with enhanced voice reasoning and agentic features, while 3.5 Pro remains in partner testing amid shortfalls on coding benchmarks and long-horizon tasks. Training has begun on the more ambitious Gemini 4, and historical patterns of timeline slips plus the absence of credible near-term announcements reinforce trader consensus around an October median release window.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$105,993終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Google's ongoing delays for the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro model, originally slated for June or July 2026 after I/O teasers, explain the market's strong 88.5% implied probability of no Pro release by September 30. The company has instead prioritized iterative releases of lighter variants, including Gemini 3.8 Flash and 3.8 Live models announced September 15 with enhanced voice reasoning and agentic features, while 3.5 Pro remains in partner testing amid shortfalls on coding benchmarks and long-horizon tasks. Training has begun on the more ambitious Gemini 4, and historical patterns of timeline slips plus the absence of credible near-term announcements reinforce trader consensus around an October median release window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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