The Trump administration's maximum-pressure campaign—centered on an oil blockade, targeted sanctions against Cuban military enterprises and officials, and legal actions—has driven severe economic strain on Havana, including repeated grid collapses and shortages, while keeping military options under review. US forces have conducted surveillance overflights and contingency planning, yet no kinetic clash has occurred through September 2026. Resources remain committed to the Iran conflict and other priorities, summer escalation windows have closed without incident, and recent bilateral contacts show both sides prioritizing coercive diplomacy and limited dialogue over direct confrontation. This sustained pattern of signaling without armed engagement underpins traders' strong consensus that no US-Cuba military clash will take place in 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
16% 確率
$250,267 Vol.
$250,267 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
16% 確率
$250,267 Vol.
$250,267 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration's maximum-pressure campaign—centered on an oil blockade, targeted sanctions against Cuban military enterprises and officials, and legal actions—has driven severe economic strain on Havana, including repeated grid collapses and shortages, while keeping military options under review. US forces have conducted surveillance overflights and contingency planning, yet no kinetic clash has occurred through September 2026. Resources remain committed to the Iran conflict and other priorities, summer escalation windows have closed without incident, and recent bilateral contacts show both sides prioritizing coercive diplomacy and limited dialogue over direct confrontation. This sustained pattern of signaling without armed engagement underpins traders' strong consensus that no US-Cuba military clash will take place in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
音量
$250,267終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration's maximum-pressure campaign—centered on an oil blockade, targeted sanctions against Cuban military enterprises and officials, and legal actions—has driven severe economic strain on Havana, including repeated grid collapses and shortages, while keeping military options under review. US forces have conducted surveillance overflights and contingency planning, yet no kinetic clash has occurred through September 2026. Resources remain committed to the Iran conflict and other priorities, summer escalation windows have closed without incident, and recent bilateral contacts show both sides prioritizing coercive diplomacy and limited dialogue over direct confrontation. This sustained pattern of signaling without armed engagement underpins traders' strong consensus that no US-Cuba military clash will take place in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$250,267終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration's maximum-pressure campaign—centered on an oil blockade, targeted sanctions against Cuban military enterprises and officials, and legal actions—has driven severe economic strain on Havana, including repeated grid collapses and shortages, while keeping military options under review. US forces have conducted surveillance overflights and contingency planning, yet no kinetic clash has occurred through September 2026. Resources remain committed to the Iran conflict and other priorities, summer escalation windows have closed without incident, and recent bilateral contacts show both sides prioritizing coercive diplomacy and limited dialogue over direct confrontation. This sustained pattern of signaling without armed engagement underpins traders' strong consensus that no US-Cuba military clash will take place in 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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