Recent high-level preparations, including weekend talks between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng ahead of the September 24 Trump-Xi summit, focus on reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in non-strategic goods per side under the proposed Board of Trade framework. These build on the May consensus and the existing trade truce set to lapse November 10, with both governments signaling progress on cuts for agricultural, energy, and manufacturing inputs alongside critical minerals and AI guardrails. Chinese officials have expressed hopes for prompt implementation, while the US has deferred new excess-capacity tariffs to preserve leverage. Trader consensus at 91% for a deal by December 31 reflects this sustained diplomatic momentum and procedural timeline toward year-end resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日91% 確率
$256,694 Vol.
$256,694 Vol.
2026/12/31
91% 確率
$256,694 Vol.
$256,694 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent high-level preparations, including weekend talks between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng ahead of the September 24 Trump-Xi summit, focus on reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in non-strategic goods per side under the proposed Board of Trade framework. These build on the May consensus and the existing trade truce set to lapse November 10, with both governments signaling progress on cuts for agricultural, energy, and manufacturing inputs alongside critical minerals and AI guardrails. Chinese officials have expressed hopes for prompt implementation, while the US has deferred new excess-capacity tariffs to preserve leverage. Trader consensus at 91% for a deal by December 31 reflects this sustained diplomatic momentum and procedural timeline toward year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
マーケット開始日： May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
音量
$256,694終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent high-level preparations, including weekend talks between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng ahead of the September 24 Trump-Xi summit, focus on reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in non-strategic goods per side under the proposed Board of Trade framework. These build on the May consensus and the existing trade truce set to lapse November 10, with both governments signaling progress on cuts for agricultural, energy, and manufacturing inputs alongside critical minerals and AI guardrails. Chinese officials have expressed hopes for prompt implementation, while the US has deferred new excess-capacity tariffs to preserve leverage. Trader consensus at 91% for a deal by December 31 reflects this sustained diplomatic momentum and procedural timeline toward year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
音量
$256,694終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent high-level preparations, including weekend talks between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng ahead of the September 24 Trump-Xi summit, focus on reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in non-strategic goods per side under the proposed Board of Trade framework. These build on the May consensus and the existing trade truce set to lapse November 10, with both governments signaling progress on cuts for agricultural, energy, and manufacturing inputs alongside critical minerals and AI guardrails. Chinese officials have expressed hopes for prompt implementation, while the US has deferred new excess-capacity tariffs to preserve leverage. Trader consensus at 91% for a deal by December 31 reflects this sustained diplomatic momentum and procedural timeline toward year-end resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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