Traders assign a 97% implied probability against a US debt default by 2027 because Congress retains statutory authority to raise or suspend the debt limit, a step taken repeatedly to authorize additional Treasury borrowing and meet obligations. Bipartisan negotiations have produced multiple debt ceiling agreements in recent years, reflecting strong institutional incentives to prevent default given its potential effects on bond markets, interest rates, and federal payments. Historical precedent reinforces this consensus, as the United States has never defaulted on its debt despite periodic fiscal standoffs. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include prolonged congressional impasse during a future debt limit deadline, unforeseen economic shocks, or legal challenges to Treasury extraordinary measures, though these remain low-probability events within the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2027年までに米国の債務不履行？
2027年までに米国の債務不履行？
はい
3% 確率
$18,051 Vol.
$18,051 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
3% 確率
$18,051 Vol.
$18,051 Vol.
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97% implied probability against a US debt default by 2027 because Congress retains statutory authority to raise or suspend the debt limit, a step taken repeatedly to authorize additional Treasury borrowing and meet obligations. Bipartisan negotiations have produced multiple debt ceiling agreements in recent years, reflecting strong institutional incentives to prevent default given its potential effects on bond markets, interest rates, and federal payments. Historical precedent reinforces this consensus, as the United States has never defaulted on its debt despite periodic fiscal standoffs. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include prolonged congressional impasse during a future debt limit deadline, unforeseen economic shocks, or legal challenges to Treasury extraordinary measures, though these remain low-probability events within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
音量
$18,051終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97% implied probability against a US debt default by 2027 because Congress retains statutory authority to raise or suspend the debt limit, a step taken repeatedly to authorize additional Treasury borrowing and meet obligations. Bipartisan negotiations have produced multiple debt ceiling agreements in recent years, reflecting strong institutional incentives to prevent default given its potential effects on bond markets, interest rates, and federal payments. Historical precedent reinforces this consensus, as the United States has never defaulted on its debt despite periodic fiscal standoffs. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include prolonged congressional impasse during a future debt limit deadline, unforeseen economic shocks, or legal challenges to Treasury extraordinary measures, though these remain low-probability events within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
音量
$18,051終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97% implied probability against a US debt default by 2027 because Congress retains statutory authority to raise or suspend the debt limit, a step taken repeatedly to authorize additional Treasury borrowing and meet obligations. Bipartisan negotiations have produced multiple debt ceiling agreements in recent years, reflecting strong institutional incentives to prevent default given its potential effects on bond markets, interest rates, and federal payments. Historical precedent reinforces this consensus, as the United States has never defaulted on its debt despite periodic fiscal standoffs. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include prolonged congressional impasse during a future debt limit deadline, unforeseen economic shocks, or legal challenges to Treasury extraordinary measures, though these remain low-probability events within the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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