Traders view the race for third place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by end of October as highly contested, with Google’s 46% implied probability reflecting its consistent edge in large language model mathematical reasoning through recent updates. Z.ai at 37.5% captures momentum from competitive Chinese AI labs releasing capable models that close gaps on benchmarks. OpenAI’s lower 9% odds underscore how incremental capability gains, platform dynamics, and developer ecosystem shifts can rapidly alter rankings, while the cluster of other outcomes around 50% signals broad uncertainty. Upcoming model releases and benchmark results remain the primary swing factors before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Google 46%
Z.ai 37.0%
OpenAI 9%
アリババ 7%
$38,648 Vol.
$38,648 Vol.
2026/10/31
46%
Z.ai
37%
OpenAI
9%
アリババ
7%
Moonshot
2%
メイトゥアン
1%
Anthropic
1%
Baidu
1%
Nvidia
1%
Meta
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
シャオミ
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
テンセント
<1%
バイトダンス
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ミストラル
<1%
StepFun
<1%
マイクロソフト
<1%
Google 46%
Z.ai 37.0%
OpenAI 9%
アリババ 7%
$38,648 Vol.
$38,648 Vol.
2026/10/31
$10,583 Vol.
46%
Z.ai
$2,084 Vol.
37%
OpenAI
$3,703 Vol.
9%
アリババ
$10,472 Vol.
7%
Moonshot
$881 Vol.
2%
メイトゥアン
$1,535 Vol.
1%
Anthropic
$704 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$729 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$1,179 Vol.
1%
Meta
$663 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$682 Vol.
<1%
シャオミ
$701 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$684 Vol.
<1%
テンセント
$707 Vol.
<1%
バイトダンス
$749 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$632 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$495 Vol.
<1%
ミストラル
$646 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$422 Vol.
<1%
マイクロソフト
$395 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders view the race for third place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by end of October as highly contested, with Google’s 46% implied probability reflecting its consistent edge in large language model mathematical reasoning through recent updates. Z.ai at 37.5% captures momentum from competitive Chinese AI labs releasing capable models that close gaps on benchmarks. OpenAI’s lower 9% odds underscore how incremental capability gains, platform dynamics, and developer ecosystem shifts can rapidly alter rankings, while the cluster of other outcomes around 50% signals broad uncertainty. Upcoming model releases and benchmark results remain the primary swing factors before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日： Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ET
音量
$38,648終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders view the race for third place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by end of October as highly contested, with Google’s 46% implied probability reflecting its consistent edge in large language model mathematical reasoning through recent updates. Z.ai at 37.5% captures momentum from competitive Chinese AI labs releasing capable models that close gaps on benchmarks. OpenAI’s lower 9% odds underscore how incremental capability gains, platform dynamics, and developer ecosystem shifts can rapidly alter rankings, while the cluster of other outcomes around 50% signals broad uncertainty. Upcoming model releases and benchmark results remain the primary swing factors before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
音量
$38,648終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Traders view the race for third place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by end of October as highly contested, with Google’s 46% implied probability reflecting its consistent edge in large language model mathematical reasoning through recent updates. Z.ai at 37.5% captures momentum from competitive Chinese AI labs releasing capable models that close gaps on benchmarks. OpenAI’s lower 9% odds underscore how incremental capability gains, platform dynamics, and developer ecosystem shifts can rapidly alter rankings, while the cluster of other outcomes around 50% signals broad uncertainty. Upcoming model releases and benchmark results remain the primary swing factors before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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