Moonshot AI's strong market-implied odds for third-best AI agent lab reflect its July 2026 release of the Kimi K3 large language model, featuring a 2.8-trillion-parameter mixture-of-experts architecture, 1M-token context, and Agent Swarm orchestration scaling to hundreds of sub-agents for complex, multi-step workflows. Recent September updates like the Kimi K2.8 Preview multimodal variant and desktop Kimi Work tool further bolster its agentic positioning against open-weight rivals. Traders appear to weigh these demonstrated capabilities and adoption metrics more heavily than established labs' proprietary systems, though outcomes remain sensitive to final benchmark results or undisclosed releases before month-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Moonshot 86.7%
Z.ai 5.4%
ミストラル 4.0%
Meta 3.3%
$54,209 Vol.
$54,209 Vol.

Moonshot
87%

Z.ai
5%

ミストラル
4%

Meta
3%

3%

SpaceXAI
3%

DeepSeek
3%

Anthropic
3%

Alibaba
2%

OpenAI
2%

Amazon
1%

Nvidia
1%

Xiaomi
<1%

Baidu
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

マイクロソフト
<1%

美団
<1%
Moonshot 86.7%
Z.ai 5.4%
ミストラル 4.0%
Meta 3.3%
$54,209 Vol.
$54,209 Vol.

Moonshot
87%

Z.ai
5%

ミストラル
4%

Meta
3%

3%

SpaceXAI
3%

DeepSeek
3%

Anthropic
3%

Alibaba
2%

OpenAI
2%

Amazon
1%

Nvidia
1%

Xiaomi
<1%

Baidu
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

マイクロソフト
<1%

美団
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日: Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Moonshot AI's strong market-implied odds for third-best AI agent lab reflect its July 2026 release of the Kimi K3 large language model, featuring a 2.8-trillion-parameter mixture-of-experts architecture, 1M-token context, and Agent Swarm orchestration scaling to hundreds of sub-agents for complex, multi-step workflows. Recent September updates like the Kimi K2.8 Preview multimodal variant and desktop Kimi Work tool further bolster its agentic positioning against open-weight rivals. Traders appear to weigh these demonstrated capabilities and adoption metrics more heavily than established labs' proprietary systems, though outcomes remain sensitive to final benchmark results or undisclosed releases before month-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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