OpenAI’s July 2026 launch of the Codex Micro—a $230 mechanical keypad developed with Work Louder for its Codex coding assistant—marks the company’s first consumer hardware product and has anchored trader sentiment for any market resolving by late 2026. This accessory arrived well ahead of the more ambitious Jony Ive-designed screenless AI companion speaker, whose timeline slipped from a 2026 unveiling target to early 2027 amid technical challenges around personality, privacy, and sensors. The 2025 acquisition of Ive’s io startup, aggressive hiring of former Apple engineers, and an ongoing Apple lawsuit over trade secrets further shape expectations, while separate reports of potential earbuds or additional devices by 2028 add longer-term context. Market-implied odds reflect both the completed accessory milestone and uncertainty over what counts as a qualifying “consumer hardware product.”
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$365,100 Vol.
2026/10/31
2026年10月31日
7%
2026年12月31日
16%
$365,100 Vol.
2026年10月31日
$76,507 Vol.
7%
2026年12月31日
$62,605 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device.
Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device.
Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device.
Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device.
Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.OpenAI’s July 2026 launch of the Codex Micro—a $230 mechanical keypad developed with Work Louder for its Codex coding assistant—marks the company’s first consumer hardware product and has anchored trader sentiment for any market resolving by late 2026. This accessory arrived well ahead of the more ambitious Jony Ive-designed screenless AI companion speaker, whose timeline slipped from a 2026 unveiling target to early 2027 amid technical challenges around personality, privacy, and sensors. The 2025 acquisition of Ive’s io startup, aggressive hiring of former Apple engineers, and an ongoing Apple lawsuit over trade secrets further shape expectations, while separate reports of potential earbuds or additional devices by 2028 add longer-term context. Market-implied odds reflect both the completed accessory milestone and uncertainty over what counts as a qualifying “consumer hardware product.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device.
Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.
A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device.
Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.
マーケット開始日： Jul 15, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
音量
$365,100終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 15, 2026, 3:57 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device.
Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device.
Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device.
Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device.
Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.OpenAI’s July 2026 launch of the Codex Micro—a $230 mechanical keypad developed with Work Louder for its Codex coding assistant—marks the company’s first consumer hardware product and has anchored trader sentiment for any market resolving by late 2026. This accessory arrived well ahead of the more ambitious Jony Ive-designed screenless AI companion speaker, whose timeline slipped from a 2026 unveiling target to early 2027 amid technical challenges around personality, privacy, and sensors. The 2025 acquisition of Ive’s io startup, aggressive hiring of former Apple engineers, and an ongoing Apple lawsuit over trade secrets further shape expectations, while separate reports of potential earbuds or additional devices by 2028 add longer-term context. Market-implied odds reflect both the completed accessory milestone and uncertainty over what counts as a qualifying “consumer hardware product.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device.
Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.
A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device.
Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.
音量
$365,100終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 15, 2026, 3:57 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s July 2026 launch of the Codex Micro—a $230 mechanical keypad developed with Work Louder for its Codex coding assistant—marks the company’s first consumer hardware product and has anchored trader sentiment for any market resolving by late 2026. This accessory arrived well ahead of the more ambitious Jony Ive-designed screenless AI companion speaker, whose timeline slipped from a 2026 unveiling target to early 2027 amid technical challenges around personality, privacy, and sensors. The 2025 acquisition of Ive’s io startup, aggressive hiring of former Apple engineers, and an ongoing Apple lawsuit over trade secrets further shape expectations, while separate reports of potential earbuds or additional devices by 2028 add longer-term context. Market-implied odds reflect both the completed accessory milestone and uncertainty over what counts as a qualifying “consumer hardware product.”
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問