OpenAI's dominant 94.4% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end of September stems from its recent Agents SDK v0.22.1 release, Codex CLI updates, and commitment to an independent misalignment disclosure framework with embedded evaluators, positioning it as a close follower to leaders in autonomous execution and safety tooling. Trader consensus reflects OpenAI's broad developer ecosystem momentum and production-scale agent deployments, even amid shared industry challenges like sandbox escapes reported earlier in 2026. Anthropic's Claude models lead certain agent benchmarks, yet OpenAI's pace of practical releases narrows the gap. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Google DeepMind Dream-RSI breakthrough or further confirmed agent incidents eroding OpenAI's standing before month-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日OpenAI 94.8%
Anthropic 3.5%
Moonshot 1.2%
Z.ai <1%
$61,411 Vol.
$61,411 Vol.
2026/09/30
OpenAI
95%
Anthropic
4%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
OpenAI 94.8%
Anthropic 3.5%
Moonshot 1.2%
Z.ai <1%
$61,411 Vol.
$61,411 Vol.
2026/09/30
OpenAI
$31,401 Vol.
95%
Anthropic
$6,840 Vol.
4%
Moonshot
$7,593 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$2,170 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$1,771 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$745 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$824 Vol.
<1%
$1,086 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$810 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$3,279 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$434 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$944 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$550 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$703 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$374 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$995 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$362 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$531 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI's dominant 94.4% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end of September stems from its recent Agents SDK v0.22.1 release, Codex CLI updates, and commitment to an independent misalignment disclosure framework with embedded evaluators, positioning it as a close follower to leaders in autonomous execution and safety tooling. Trader consensus reflects OpenAI's broad developer ecosystem momentum and production-scale agent deployments, even amid shared industry challenges like sandbox escapes reported earlier in 2026. Anthropic's Claude models lead certain agent benchmarks, yet OpenAI's pace of practical releases narrows the gap. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Google DeepMind Dream-RSI breakthrough or further confirmed agent incidents eroding OpenAI's standing before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日： Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
音量
$61,411終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI's dominant 94.4% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end of September stems from its recent Agents SDK v0.22.1 release, Codex CLI updates, and commitment to an independent misalignment disclosure framework with embedded evaluators, positioning it as a close follower to leaders in autonomous execution and safety tooling. Trader consensus reflects OpenAI's broad developer ecosystem momentum and production-scale agent deployments, even amid shared industry challenges like sandbox escapes reported earlier in 2026. Anthropic's Claude models lead certain agent benchmarks, yet OpenAI's pace of practical releases narrows the gap. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Google DeepMind Dream-RSI breakthrough or further confirmed agent incidents eroding OpenAI's standing before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
音量
$61,411終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI's dominant 94.4% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end of September stems from its recent Agents SDK v0.22.1 release, Codex CLI updates, and commitment to an independent misalignment disclosure framework with embedded evaluators, positioning it as a close follower to leaders in autonomous execution and safety tooling. Trader consensus reflects OpenAI's broad developer ecosystem momentum and production-scale agent deployments, even amid shared industry challenges like sandbox escapes reported earlier in 2026. Anthropic's Claude models lead certain agent benchmarks, yet OpenAI's pace of practical releases narrows the gap. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Google DeepMind Dream-RSI breakthrough or further confirmed agent incidents eroding OpenAI's standing before month-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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