Anthropic holds a strong 77.7% implied probability for second place on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard by end-September because OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra overtook Claude Fable 5.1 by 35 points in early September community votes, reflecting superior multi-step web-app construction and tool use. Anthropic’s recent Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases remain competitive on related benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench and SWE-bench Verified, supporting trader consensus that it trails only OpenAI among frontier labs. Lower odds for OpenAI at second (18.9%) and minimal shares for Moonshot, Alibaba, and others underscore the narrow gap between the top two while highlighting limited recent gains from competitors in live Code Arena evaluations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Anthropic 77.8%
OpenAI 19.9%
アリババ 2.9%
ムーンショット 2.4%
$68,735 Vol.
$68,735 Vol.
2026/09/30
Anthropic
78%
OpenAI
20%
アリババ
3%
ムーンショット
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
テンセント
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meta
<1%
<1%
バイトダンス
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Poolside
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 77.8%
OpenAI 19.9%
アリババ 2.9%
ムーンショット 2.4%
$68,735 Vol.
$68,735 Vol.
2026/09/30
Anthropic
$13,593 Vol.
78%
OpenAI
$7,977 Vol.
20%
アリババ
$16,925 Vol.
3%
ムーンショット
$12,101 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$2,291 Vol.
1%
テンセント
$1,731 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$1,852 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$1,699 Vol.
<1%
$1,642 Vol.
<1%
バイトダンス
$3,054 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$598 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,468 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,022 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$617 Vol.
<1%
Poolside
$1,035 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,130 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds a strong 77.7% implied probability for second place on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard by end-September because OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra overtook Claude Fable 5.1 by 35 points in early September community votes, reflecting superior multi-step web-app construction and tool use. Anthropic’s recent Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases remain competitive on related benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench and SWE-bench Verified, supporting trader consensus that it trails only OpenAI among frontier labs. Lower odds for OpenAI at second (18.9%) and minimal shares for Moonshot, Alibaba, and others underscore the narrow gap between the top two while highlighting limited recent gains from competitors in live Code Arena evaluations.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日： Jul 24, 2026, 7:45 PM ET
音量
$68,735終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 7:45 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds a strong 77.7% implied probability for second place on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard by end-September because OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra overtook Claude Fable 5.1 by 35 points in early September community votes, reflecting superior multi-step web-app construction and tool use. Anthropic’s recent Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases remain competitive on related benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench and SWE-bench Verified, supporting trader consensus that it trails only OpenAI among frontier labs. Lower odds for OpenAI at second (18.9%) and minimal shares for Moonshot, Alibaba, and others underscore the narrow gap between the top two while highlighting limited recent gains from competitors in live Code Arena evaluations.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
音量
$68,735終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 7:45 PM ETAnthropic holds a strong 77.7% implied probability for second place on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard by end-September because OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra overtook Claude Fable 5.1 by 35 points in early September community votes, reflecting superior multi-step web-app construction and tool use. Anthropic’s recent Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases remain competitive on related benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench and SWE-bench Verified, supporting trader consensus that it trails only OpenAI among frontier labs. Lower odds for OpenAI at second (18.9%) and minimal shares for Moonshot, Alibaba, and others underscore the narrow gap between the top two while highlighting limited recent gains from competitors in live Code Arena evaluations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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