Recent polling shows Democrats holding a consistent 7- to 12-point lead on the generic congressional ballot, aligning with historical midterm patterns that typically erode the president's party's House margin. Republicans defend a narrow current majority near 218 seats amid dozens of competitive districts, where retirements, open seats, and suburban swing areas create vulnerability despite favorable redistricting in states like Texas and Florida. Forecasters note this environment supports Democratic net gains, yet the exact seat outcome remains sensitive to turnout, candidate quality, and any late shifts in national conditions. Trader pricing across the 190-210 range reflects this balance of structural headwinds against GOP map edges and the inherent uncertainty of projecting precise totals weeks before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日190未満 24%
195〜199 16%
190〜194 13%
200～204 12.3%
$306,743 Vol.
$306,743 Vol.
2026/11/02
190未満
24%
190〜194
13%
195〜199
16%
200～204
12%
205～209
12%
210〜214
9%
215〜219
6%
220〜224
3%
225〜229
2%
230以上
2%
190未満 24%
195〜199 16%
190〜194 13%
200～204 12.3%
$306,743 Vol.
$306,743 Vol.
2026/11/02
190未満
$43,315 Vol.
24%
190〜194
$15,558 Vol.
13%
195〜199
$34,102 Vol.
16%
200～204
$26,766 Vol.
12%
205～209
$41,753 Vol.
12%
210〜214
$16,547 Vol.
9%
215〜219
$12,155 Vol.
6%
220〜224
$59,810 Vol.
3%
225〜229
$25,066 Vol.
2%
230以上
$31,671 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent polling shows Democrats holding a consistent 7- to 12-point lead on the generic congressional ballot, aligning with historical midterm patterns that typically erode the president's party's House margin. Republicans defend a narrow current majority near 218 seats amid dozens of competitive districts, where retirements, open seats, and suburban swing areas create vulnerability despite favorable redistricting in states like Texas and Florida. Forecasters note this environment supports Democratic net gains, yet the exact seat outcome remains sensitive to turnout, candidate quality, and any late shifts in national conditions. Trader pricing across the 190-210 range reflects this balance of structural headwinds against GOP map edges and the inherent uncertainty of projecting precise totals weeks before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
音量
$306,743終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent polling shows Democrats holding a consistent 7- to 12-point lead on the generic congressional ballot, aligning with historical midterm patterns that typically erode the president's party's House margin. Republicans defend a narrow current majority near 218 seats amid dozens of competitive districts, where retirements, open seats, and suburban swing areas create vulnerability despite favorable redistricting in states like Texas and Florida. Forecasters note this environment supports Democratic net gains, yet the exact seat outcome remains sensitive to turnout, candidate quality, and any late shifts in national conditions. Trader pricing across the 190-210 range reflects this balance of structural headwinds against GOP map edges and the inherent uncertainty of projecting precise totals weeks before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$306,743終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling shows Democrats holding a consistent 7- to 12-point lead on the generic congressional ballot, aligning with historical midterm patterns that typically erode the president's party's House margin. Republicans defend a narrow current majority near 218 seats amid dozens of competitive districts, where retirements, open seats, and suburban swing areas create vulnerability despite favorable redistricting in states like Texas and Florida. Forecasters note this environment supports Democratic net gains, yet the exact seat outcome remains sensitive to turnout, candidate quality, and any late shifts in national conditions. Trader pricing across the 190-210 range reflects this balance of structural headwinds against GOP map edges and the inherent uncertainty of projecting precise totals weeks before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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