Steven Horsford, the Democratic incumbent seeking a sixth term, holds an 89.5% implied probability in the NV-04 race due to the district’s consistent Democratic lean, including a 1.5-point margin for the Democratic presidential candidate in 2024, and a registration advantage of roughly 35,000 more Democrats than Republicans. Cody Whipple, who secured the Republican nomination in the June 2026 primary with 61.8% of the vote, trails at 9.5% amid a “Likely Democratic” rating from multiple forecasters. Horsford’s substantial fundraising edge—exceeding $2.5 million raised compared with Whipple’s roughly $750,000—further supports trader consensus on the outcome. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with no major late-cycle developments reported that have altered the fundamentals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
スティーブン・ホースフォード（民主党）
90%
コディ・ウィップル（共和党）
10%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
スティーブン・ホースフォード（民主党）
$3,047 Vol.
90%
コディ・ウィップル（共和党）
$4,604 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Steven Horsford, the Democratic incumbent seeking a sixth term, holds an 89.5% implied probability in the NV-04 race due to the district’s consistent Democratic lean, including a 1.5-point margin for the Democratic presidential candidate in 2024, and a registration advantage of roughly 35,000 more Democrats than Republicans. Cody Whipple, who secured the Republican nomination in the June 2026 primary with 61.8% of the vote, trails at 9.5% amid a “Likely Democratic” rating from multiple forecasters. Horsford’s substantial fundraising edge—exceeding $2.5 million raised compared with Whipple’s roughly $750,000—further supports trader consensus on the outcome. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with no major late-cycle developments reported that have altered the fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
音量
$7,651終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Steven Horsford, the Democratic incumbent seeking a sixth term, holds an 89.5% implied probability in the NV-04 race due to the district’s consistent Democratic lean, including a 1.5-point margin for the Democratic presidential candidate in 2024, and a registration advantage of roughly 35,000 more Democrats than Republicans. Cody Whipple, who secured the Republican nomination in the June 2026 primary with 61.8% of the vote, trails at 9.5% amid a “Likely Democratic” rating from multiple forecasters. Horsford’s substantial fundraising edge—exceeding $2.5 million raised compared with Whipple’s roughly $750,000—further supports trader consensus on the outcome. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with no major late-cycle developments reported that have altered the fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$7,651終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Steven Horsford, the Democratic incumbent seeking a sixth term, holds an 89.5% implied probability in the NV-04 race due to the district’s consistent Democratic lean, including a 1.5-point margin for the Democratic presidential candidate in 2024, and a registration advantage of roughly 35,000 more Democrats than Republicans. Cody Whipple, who secured the Republican nomination in the June 2026 primary with 61.8% of the vote, trails at 9.5% amid a “Likely Democratic” rating from multiple forecasters. Horsford’s substantial fundraising edge—exceeding $2.5 million raised compared with Whipple’s roughly $750,000—further supports trader consensus on the outcome. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with no major late-cycle developments reported that have altered the fundamentals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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