The special election to fill the vacancy in Georgia’s 13th Congressional District following the April death of longtime Democratic incumbent David Scott featured an all-party ballot on July 28, with a majority required to avoid an August runoff. A crowded field of Democratic contenders, including Marcye Scott and Everton Blair, alongside minor Republican candidates, created a fragmented vote that traders assessed as carrying a 63.5% implied probability of an outright first-round winner. Recent county-level patterns in the heavily Democratic Atlanta suburbs and historical special-election dynamics in similar open seats informed this consensus, though the absence of a clear frontrunner above 50% and the potential for split Democratic support introduced uncertainty ahead of final certification.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
0% 確率
新規
新規
2027/03/31
はい
0% 確率
新規
新規
2027/03/31
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-13 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-13 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-13 House election.The special election to fill the vacancy in Georgia’s 13th Congressional District following the April death of longtime Democratic incumbent David Scott featured an all-party ballot on July 28, with a majority required to avoid an August runoff. A crowded field of Democratic contenders, including Marcye Scott and Everton Blair, alongside minor Republican candidates, created a fragmented vote that traders assessed as carrying a 63.5% implied probability of an outright first-round winner. Recent county-level patterns in the heavily Democratic Atlanta suburbs and historical special-election dynamics in similar open seats informed this consensus, though the absence of a clear frontrunner above 50% and the potential for split Democratic support introduced uncertainty ahead of final certification.
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-13 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-13 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-13 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-13 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-13 House election.
マーケット開始日： Aug 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
音量
$478終了日
2027/04/01マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-13 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-13 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-13 House election.The special election to fill the vacancy in Georgia’s 13th Congressional District following the April death of longtime Democratic incumbent David Scott featured an all-party ballot on July 28, with a majority required to avoid an August runoff. A crowded field of Democratic contenders, including Marcye Scott and Everton Blair, alongside minor Republican candidates, created a fragmented vote that traders assessed as carrying a 63.5% implied probability of an outright first-round winner. Recent county-level patterns in the heavily Democratic Atlanta suburbs and historical special-election dynamics in similar open seats informed this consensus, though the absence of a clear frontrunner above 50% and the potential for split Democratic support introduced uncertainty ahead of final certification.
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-13 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-13 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-13 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-13 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-13 House election.
音量
$478終了日
2027/04/01マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The special election to fill the vacancy in Georgia’s 13th Congressional District following the April death of longtime Democratic incumbent David Scott featured an all-party ballot on July 28, with a majority required to avoid an August runoff. A crowded field of Democratic contenders, including Marcye Scott and Everton Blair, alongside minor Republican candidates, created a fragmented vote that traders assessed as carrying a 63.5% implied probability of an outright first-round winner. Recent county-level patterns in the heavily Democratic Atlanta suburbs and historical special-election dynamics in similar open seats informed this consensus, though the absence of a clear frontrunner above 50% and the potential for split Democratic support introduced uncertainty ahead of final certification.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問