Strong U.S. economic resilience, with GDP growth near 2.2% and unemployment holding around 4.1-4.3%, underpins the 94.9% market-implied probability against a Fed emergency rate cut before 2027. The federal funds rate remains anchored at 3.50%-3.75%, as robust job gains, productivity advances, and AI-driven investment outweigh supply-driven inflation pressures near 3.3-3.6% core PCE. Policymakers have maintained a patient stance through mid-2026, with projections showing possible hikes this year before any easing begins in 2027. This consensus reflects trader assessment of stable labor market conditions and the absence of recession signals or acute financial stress. A sharp deterioration in data, major geopolitical escalation disrupting energy markets, or sudden credit event could still shift expectations toward emergency action.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
5% 確率
$208,964 Vol.
$208,964 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
5% 確率
$208,964 Vol.
$208,964 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Strong U.S. economic resilience, with GDP growth near 2.2% and unemployment holding around 4.1-4.3%, underpins the 94.9% market-implied probability against a Fed emergency rate cut before 2027. The federal funds rate remains anchored at 3.50%-3.75%, as robust job gains, productivity advances, and AI-driven investment outweigh supply-driven inflation pressures near 3.3-3.6% core PCE. Policymakers have maintained a patient stance through mid-2026, with projections showing possible hikes this year before any easing begins in 2027. This consensus reflects trader assessment of stable labor market conditions and the absence of recession signals or acute financial stress. A sharp deterioration in data, major geopolitical escalation disrupting energy markets, or sudden credit event could still shift expectations toward emergency action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
音量
$208,964終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Strong U.S. economic resilience, with GDP growth near 2.2% and unemployment holding around 4.1-4.3%, underpins the 94.9% market-implied probability against a Fed emergency rate cut before 2027. The federal funds rate remains anchored at 3.50%-3.75%, as robust job gains, productivity advances, and AI-driven investment outweigh supply-driven inflation pressures near 3.3-3.6% core PCE. Policymakers have maintained a patient stance through mid-2026, with projections showing possible hikes this year before any easing begins in 2027. This consensus reflects trader assessment of stable labor market conditions and the absence of recession signals or acute financial stress. A sharp deterioration in data, major geopolitical escalation disrupting energy markets, or sudden credit event could still shift expectations toward emergency action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
音量
$208,964終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Strong U.S. economic resilience, with GDP growth near 2.2% and unemployment holding around 4.1-4.3%, underpins the 94.9% market-implied probability against a Fed emergency rate cut before 2027. The federal funds rate remains anchored at 3.50%-3.75%, as robust job gains, productivity advances, and AI-driven investment outweigh supply-driven inflation pressures near 3.3-3.6% core PCE. Policymakers have maintained a patient stance through mid-2026, with projections showing possible hikes this year before any easing begins in 2027. This consensus reflects trader assessment of stable labor market conditions and the absence of recession signals or acute financial stress. A sharp deterioration in data, major geopolitical escalation disrupting energy markets, or sudden credit event could still shift expectations toward emergency action.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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