Recent official analyses confirm August 2026 as the warmest or joint-warmest month on record, with global surface air temperatures reaching 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline per Copernicus ERA5 data—driven by long-term anthropogenic warming plus a rapidly intensifying super El Niño that elevated extra-polar sea surface temperatures to record highs. This combination produced land and ocean anomalies aligning closely with the narrow 1.38–1.41°C market bin, consistent with multiple agency baselines and historical El Niño amplification patterns. Final dataset revisions or inter-agency differences in processing could still shift the precise reported value, though current model consensus and observations strongly support the dominant outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年8月気温上昇（º C ） （より高いストライキ）
2026年8月気温上昇（º C ） （より高いストライキ）
1.38–1.41ºC 98.3%
1.42–1.45ºC 1.9%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,755 Vol.
$20,755 Vol.
2026/08/31
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC
98%
1.42–1.45ºC
2%
>1.45ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC 98.3%
1.42–1.45ºC 1.9%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,755 Vol.
$20,755 Vol.
2026/08/31
<1.30ºC
$657 Vol.
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,462 Vol.
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$3,138 Vol.
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC
$4,701 Vol.
98%
1.42–1.45ºC
$9,267 Vol.
2%
>1.45ºC
$1,531 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent official analyses confirm August 2026 as the warmest or joint-warmest month on record, with global surface air temperatures reaching 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline per Copernicus ERA5 data—driven by long-term anthropogenic warming plus a rapidly intensifying super El Niño that elevated extra-polar sea surface temperatures to record highs. This combination produced land and ocean anomalies aligning closely with the narrow 1.38–1.41°C market bin, consistent with multiple agency baselines and historical El Niño amplification patterns. Final dataset revisions or inter-agency differences in processing could still shift the precise reported value, though current model consensus and observations strongly support the dominant outcome.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
マーケット開始日： Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
音量
$20,755終了日
2026/09/01マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent official analyses confirm August 2026 as the warmest or joint-warmest month on record, with global surface air temperatures reaching 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline per Copernicus ERA5 data—driven by long-term anthropogenic warming plus a rapidly intensifying super El Niño that elevated extra-polar sea surface temperatures to record highs. This combination produced land and ocean anomalies aligning closely with the narrow 1.38–1.41°C market bin, consistent with multiple agency baselines and historical El Niño amplification patterns. Final dataset revisions or inter-agency differences in processing could still shift the precise reported value, though current model consensus and observations strongly support the dominant outcome.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
音量
$20,755終了日
2026/09/01マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Recent official analyses confirm August 2026 as the warmest or joint-warmest month on record, with global surface air temperatures reaching 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline per Copernicus ERA5 data—driven by long-term anthropogenic warming plus a rapidly intensifying super El Niño that elevated extra-polar sea surface temperatures to record highs. This combination produced land and ocean anomalies aligning closely with the narrow 1.38–1.41°C market bin, consistent with multiple agency baselines and historical El Niño amplification patterns. Final dataset revisions or inter-agency differences in processing could still shift the precise reported value, though current model consensus and observations strongly support the dominant outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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