Recent observations and ensemble forecasts position September 2026 as likely the second-warmest September on record, with global mean temperatures tracking near or slightly below the 2023 benchmark of 16.38 °C while exceeding prior years. A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already near +2.8 °C and projected to peak above +3.5 °C, supplies additional warmth through atmospheric teleconnections, though the full seasonal lag means peak impacts may extend into late 2026 and 2027. Current ECMWF runs and preliminary analyses indicate the month is running roughly +0.94 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline, inside model uncertainty ranges that favor a top-two finish over a new record. Upcoming final ERA5 and other agency datasets will determine exact ranking against 2023 and 2024.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年9月史上1番目、2番目、3番目に暑い？
2026年9月史上1番目、2番目、3番目に暑い？
2番目に暑い 85%
史上1位の暑さ 13%
3番目に暑い 6.3%
4番目またはそれ以下 6.1%
新規
新規
2026/09/30
史上1位の暑さ
13%
2番目に暑い
85%
3番目に暑い
6%
4番目またはそれ以下
6%
2番目に暑い 85%
史上1位の暑さ 13%
3番目に暑い 6.3%
4番目またはそれ以下 6.1%
新規
新規
2026/09/30
史上1位の暑さ
$349 Vol.
13%
2番目に暑い
$1 Vol.
85%
3番目に暑い
$191 Vol.
6%
4番目またはそれ以下
$250 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent observations and ensemble forecasts position September 2026 as likely the second-warmest September on record, with global mean temperatures tracking near or slightly below the 2023 benchmark of 16.38 °C while exceeding prior years. A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already near +2.8 °C and projected to peak above +3.5 °C, supplies additional warmth through atmospheric teleconnections, though the full seasonal lag means peak impacts may extend into late 2026 and 2027. Current ECMWF runs and preliminary analyses indicate the month is running roughly +0.94 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline, inside model uncertainty ranges that favor a top-two finish over a new record. Upcoming final ERA5 and other agency datasets will determine exact ranking against 2023 and 2024.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
マーケット開始日： Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
音量
$791終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent observations and ensemble forecasts position September 2026 as likely the second-warmest September on record, with global mean temperatures tracking near or slightly below the 2023 benchmark of 16.38 °C while exceeding prior years. A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already near +2.8 °C and projected to peak above +3.5 °C, supplies additional warmth through atmospheric teleconnections, though the full seasonal lag means peak impacts may extend into late 2026 and 2027. Current ECMWF runs and preliminary analyses indicate the month is running roughly +0.94 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline, inside model uncertainty ranges that favor a top-two finish over a new record. Upcoming final ERA5 and other agency datasets will determine exact ranking against 2023 and 2024.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
音量
$791終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Recent observations and ensemble forecasts position September 2026 as likely the second-warmest September on record, with global mean temperatures tracking near or slightly below the 2023 benchmark of 16.38 °C while exceeding prior years. A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already near +2.8 °C and projected to peak above +3.5 °C, supplies additional warmth through atmospheric teleconnections, though the full seasonal lag means peak impacts may extend into late 2026 and 2027. Current ECMWF runs and preliminary analyses indicate the month is running roughly +0.94 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline, inside model uncertainty ranges that favor a top-two finish over a new record. Upcoming final ERA5 and other agency datasets will determine exact ranking against 2023 and 2024.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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