Trader consensus assigns a 74.5% implied probability to a highest 2026 magnitude of 7.9 or below, reflecting the absence of any USGS-recorded event exceeding 7.8 through early September. The year's strongest quakes—offshore Mindanao (7.8, June) and Flores, Indonesia (7.8, August)—remain below the typical annual occurrence of one magnitude 8.0+, while recent activity has stayed modest, with peaks near 6.3 in Alaska. Historical patterns show magnitude 8+ events cluster irregularly, and the remaining months introduce uncertainty around subduction-zone activity, yet current seismic data and model baselines support the market's strong lean toward no record-setting rupture.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年の最大地震マグニチュードは？
2026年の最大地震マグニチュードは？
7.9以下 75%
8.0～8.1 9%
8.6～8.7 5.4%
8.2～8.3 4.9%
新規
新規
2027/01/03
7.9以下
75%
8.0～8.1
9%
8.2～8.3
5%
8.4～8.5
3%
8.6～8.7
5%
8.8～8.9
1%
9.0以上
3%
7.9以下 75%
8.0～8.1 9%
8.6～8.7 5.4%
8.2～8.3 4.9%
新規
新規
2027/01/03
7.9以下
$2,353 Vol.
75%
8.0～8.1
$562 Vol.
9%
8.2～8.3
$331 Vol.
5%
8.4～8.5
$201 Vol.
3%
8.6～8.7
$306 Vol.
5%
8.8～8.9
$203 Vol.
1%
9.0以上
$156 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus assigns a 74.5% implied probability to a highest 2026 magnitude of 7.9 or below, reflecting the absence of any USGS-recorded event exceeding 7.8 through early September. The year's strongest quakes—offshore Mindanao (7.8, June) and Flores, Indonesia (7.8, August)—remain below the typical annual occurrence of one magnitude 8.0+, while recent activity has stayed modest, with peaks near 6.3 in Alaska. Historical patterns show magnitude 8+ events cluster irregularly, and the remaining months introduce uncertainty around subduction-zone activity, yet current seismic data and model baselines support the market's strong lean toward no record-setting rupture.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ET
音量
$4,111終了日
2027/01/04マーケット開始日
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus assigns a 74.5% implied probability to a highest 2026 magnitude of 7.9 or below, reflecting the absence of any USGS-recorded event exceeding 7.8 through early September. The year's strongest quakes—offshore Mindanao (7.8, June) and Flores, Indonesia (7.8, August)—remain below the typical annual occurrence of one magnitude 8.0+, while recent activity has stayed modest, with peaks near 6.3 in Alaska. Historical patterns show magnitude 8+ events cluster irregularly, and the remaining months introduce uncertainty around subduction-zone activity, yet current seismic data and model baselines support the market's strong lean toward no record-setting rupture.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
音量
$4,111終了日
2027/01/04マーケット開始日
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETTrader consensus assigns a 74.5% implied probability to a highest 2026 magnitude of 7.9 or below, reflecting the absence of any USGS-recorded event exceeding 7.8 through early September. The year's strongest quakes—offshore Mindanao (7.8, June) and Flores, Indonesia (7.8, August)—remain below the typical annual occurrence of one magnitude 8.0+, while recent activity has stayed modest, with peaks near 6.3 in Alaska. Historical patterns show magnitude 8+ events cluster irregularly, and the remaining months introduce uncertainty around subduction-zone activity, yet current seismic data and model baselines support the market's strong lean toward no record-setting rupture.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問