Meta's dominant 91% implied probability stems from its accelerated rollout of Muse Image and related agentic capabilities, including advanced restyling, style transformation, and context-aware editing tools integrated across Instagram, WhatsApp, and Meta AI. These updates have driven measurable gains on arena.ai's Text Arena leaderboard under Style Control evaluation, outpacing rivals in user-facing features like personalized image generation and iterative prompt refinement. Traders view Meta Superintelligence Labs' rapid iteration and open model strategy as positioning the company for sustained #2 ranking by September 30. A credible last-minute model release or benchmark surge from OpenAI, Google, or Anthropic could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Meta 91%
Google 4.8%
Anthropic 3.1%
OpenAI 3.0%
$85,544 Vol.
$85,544 Vol.
2026/09/30
Meta
91%
5%
Anthropic
3%
OpenAI
3%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meta 91%
Google 4.8%
Anthropic 3.1%
OpenAI 3.0%
$85,544 Vol.
$85,544 Vol.
2026/09/30
Meta
$27,814 Vol.
91%
$11,192 Vol.
5%
Anthropic
$4,496 Vol.
3%
OpenAI
$16,218 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$2,413 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$1,901 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,697 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$5,263 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$1,647 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$1,535 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,795 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,409 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,261 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$645 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,538 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$460 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$820 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$665 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$733 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$1,211 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$831 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta's dominant 91% implied probability stems from its accelerated rollout of Muse Image and related agentic capabilities, including advanced restyling, style transformation, and context-aware editing tools integrated across Instagram, WhatsApp, and Meta AI. These updates have driven measurable gains on arena.ai's Text Arena leaderboard under Style Control evaluation, outpacing rivals in user-facing features like personalized image generation and iterative prompt refinement. Traders view Meta Superintelligence Labs' rapid iteration and open model strategy as positioning the company for sustained #2 ranking by September 30. A credible last-minute model release or benchmark surge from OpenAI, Google, or Anthropic could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日： Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
音量
$85,544終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta's dominant 91% implied probability stems from its accelerated rollout of Muse Image and related agentic capabilities, including advanced restyling, style transformation, and context-aware editing tools integrated across Instagram, WhatsApp, and Meta AI. These updates have driven measurable gains on arena.ai's Text Arena leaderboard under Style Control evaluation, outpacing rivals in user-facing features like personalized image generation and iterative prompt refinement. Traders view Meta Superintelligence Labs' rapid iteration and open model strategy as positioning the company for sustained #2 ranking by September 30. A credible last-minute model release or benchmark surge from OpenAI, Google, or Anthropic could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
音量
$85,544終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETMeta's dominant 91% implied probability stems from its accelerated rollout of Muse Image and related agentic capabilities, including advanced restyling, style transformation, and context-aware editing tools integrated across Instagram, WhatsApp, and Meta AI. These updates have driven measurable gains on arena.ai's Text Arena leaderboard under Style Control evaluation, outpacing rivals in user-facing features like personalized image generation and iterative prompt refinement. Traders view Meta Superintelligence Labs' rapid iteration and open model strategy as positioning the company for sustained #2 ranking by September 30. A credible last-minute model release or benchmark surge from OpenAI, Google, or Anthropic could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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