Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has repeatedly ruled out direct talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, stating in April, July, and September 2026 that any meeting or call is off the table while Israeli strikes and territorial violations continue. US-mediated indirect negotiations, including a June framework agreement on ceasefire implementation, withdrawal zones, and Lebanese army deployment, have proceeded through ambassadors and lower-level channels, with the next round postponed to October. Aoun’s September 12 visit to southern Lebanon underscored Beirut’s unchanged demands for full withdrawal, prisoner exchanges, displaced returns, and reconstruction. Hezbollah’s opposition to the process and recent ground incidents further complicate any shift toward leader-level contact. Trader assessments hinge on whether sustained US diplomatic pressure can overcome these barriers before the market’s resolution date.