Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan holds a commanding position in Virginia’s 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election, consistent with trader consensus around 96 percent for a Democratic victory. The seat features a D+17 Partisan Voter Index and delivered a roughly 33-point Democratic margin in the prior presidential cycle, with boundaries anchored in Richmond and Southside Virginia that favor the party. McClellan advanced unopposed through a canceled Democratic primary and benefits from established fundraising and name recognition. Republican nominee Robert Murray and independent Joan Bell have drawn limited visibility and resources. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment could still alter the outcome, though structural factors make such shifts improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVA-04 House Election Winner
VA-04 House Election Winner
$41,614 Vol.
$41,614 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Jennifer McClellan (D)
96%
Robert Murray (R)
2%
$41,614 Vol.
$41,614 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Jennifer McClellan (D)
$12,217 Vol.
96%
Robert Murray (R)
$29,397 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan holds a commanding position in Virginia’s 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election, consistent with trader consensus around 96 percent for a Democratic victory. The seat features a D+17 Partisan Voter Index and delivered a roughly 33-point Democratic margin in the prior presidential cycle, with boundaries anchored in Richmond and Southside Virginia that favor the party. McClellan advanced unopposed through a canceled Democratic primary and benefits from established fundraising and name recognition. Republican nominee Robert Murray and independent Joan Bell have drawn limited visibility and resources. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment could still alter the outcome, though structural factors make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$41,614Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan holds a commanding position in Virginia’s 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election, consistent with trader consensus around 96 percent for a Democratic victory. The seat features a D+17 Partisan Voter Index and delivered a roughly 33-point Democratic margin in the prior presidential cycle, with boundaries anchored in Richmond and Southside Virginia that favor the party. McClellan advanced unopposed through a canceled Democratic primary and benefits from established fundraising and name recognition. Republican nominee Robert Murray and independent Joan Bell have drawn limited visibility and resources. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment could still alter the outcome, though structural factors make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$41,614Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan holds a commanding position in Virginia’s 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election, consistent with trader consensus around 96 percent for a Democratic victory. The seat features a D+17 Partisan Voter Index and delivered a roughly 33-point Democratic margin in the prior presidential cycle, with boundaries anchored in Richmond and Southside Virginia that favor the party. McClellan advanced unopposed through a canceled Democratic primary and benefits from established fundraising and name recognition. Republican nominee Robert Murray and independent Joan Bell have drawn limited visibility and resources. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment could still alter the outcome, though structural factors make such shifts improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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