Persistent disagreements over territorial concessions and security guarantees continue to block any comprehensive Ukraine-Russia settlement, as Moscow insists on recognition of its occupied areas while Kyiv rejects unilateral withdrawals without firm assurances. Recent U.S.-mediated contacts, including envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv in early September 2026, produced no breakthroughs and yielded only preliminary discussion of possible trilateral talks later in the year. Kremlin statements on September 21 confirmed zero progress in negotiations, with Russia signaling plans to intensify military pressure over the coming winter. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 90.5% implied probability against a deal before 2027, though shifts in leadership positions or sudden concessions in upcoming diplomatic channels could still alter the trajectory.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'Ucraina firma un accordo di pace con la Russia prima del 2027?
L'Ucraina firma un accordo di pace con la Russia prima del 2027?
Sì
10% probabilità
$2,776,741 Vol.
$2,776,741 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
10% probabilità
$2,776,741 Vol.
$2,776,741 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Persistent disagreements over territorial concessions and security guarantees continue to block any comprehensive Ukraine-Russia settlement, as Moscow insists on recognition of its occupied areas while Kyiv rejects unilateral withdrawals without firm assurances. Recent U.S.-mediated contacts, including envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv in early September 2026, produced no breakthroughs and yielded only preliminary discussion of possible trilateral talks later in the year. Kremlin statements on September 21 confirmed zero progress in negotiations, with Russia signaling plans to intensify military pressure over the coming winter. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 90.5% implied probability against a deal before 2027, though shifts in leadership positions or sudden concessions in upcoming diplomatic channels could still alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,776,741Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Persistent disagreements over territorial concessions and security guarantees continue to block any comprehensive Ukraine-Russia settlement, as Moscow insists on recognition of its occupied areas while Kyiv rejects unilateral withdrawals without firm assurances. Recent U.S.-mediated contacts, including envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv in early September 2026, produced no breakthroughs and yielded only preliminary discussion of possible trilateral talks later in the year. Kremlin statements on September 21 confirmed zero progress in negotiations, with Russia signaling plans to intensify military pressure over the coming winter. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 90.5% implied probability against a deal before 2027, though shifts in leadership positions or sudden concessions in upcoming diplomatic channels could still alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,776,741Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Persistent disagreements over territorial concessions and security guarantees continue to block any comprehensive Ukraine-Russia settlement, as Moscow insists on recognition of its occupied areas while Kyiv rejects unilateral withdrawals without firm assurances. Recent U.S.-mediated contacts, including envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv in early September 2026, produced no breakthroughs and yielded only preliminary discussion of possible trilateral talks later in the year. Kremlin statements on September 21 confirmed zero progress in negotiations, with Russia signaling plans to intensify military pressure over the coming winter. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 90.5% implied probability against a deal before 2027, though shifts in leadership positions or sudden concessions in upcoming diplomatic channels could still alter the trajectory.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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