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icon for Vincitore delle elezioni del Governatore di San Paolo
Politica·Brasile

Vincitore delle elezioni del Governatore di San Paolo

icon for Vincitore delle elezioni del Governatore di San Paolo
Politica·Brasile

Vincitore delle elezioni del Governatore di San Paolo

Tarcísio de Freitas 98.2%

Fernando Haddad <1%

Erika Hilton <1%

Kim Kataguiri <1%

Polymarket

$308,591 Vol.

Tarcísio de Freitas 98.2%

Fernando Haddad <1%

Erika Hilton <1%

Kim Kataguiri <1%

Polymarket

$308,591 Vol.

icon for Tarcísio de Freitas

Tarcísio de Freitas

$146,132 Vol.

98%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$51,461 Vol.

1%

icon for Erika Hilton

Erika Hilton

$23,068 Vol.

1%

icon for Kim Kataguiri

Kim Kataguiri

$77,262 Vol.

<1%

icon for Márcio França

Márcio França

$10,668 Vol.

<1%

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, holds a commanding lead in the October 4 first-round contest due to consistent polling strength and a consolidated field after earlier withdrawals by figures such as Kim Kataguiri and Paulo Serra. The latest Quaest survey from early September showed him at 42% against Fernando Haddad’s 27%, a 15-point margin that widened slightly from August, with smaller candidates at 1% or less and 14% undecided. This positioning, backed by a broad coalition including PL, MDB, PSD, and others, supports trader expectations of a first-round victory or decisive runoff edge. Remaining risks include late voter shifts among undecideds or turnout surprises in the final weeks before the October 25 potential second round.

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$308,591
Data di fine
4 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, holds a commanding lead in the October 4 first-round contest due to consistent polling strength and a consolidated field after earlier withdrawals by figures such as Kim Kataguiri and Paulo Serra. The latest Quaest survey from early September showed him at 42% against Fernando Haddad’s 27%, a 15-point margin that widened slightly from August, with smaller candidates at 1% or less and 14% undecided. This positioning, backed by a broad coalition including PL, MDB, PSD, and others, supports trader expectations of a first-round victory or decisive runoff edge. Remaining risks include late voter shifts among undecideds or turnout surprises in the final weeks before the October 25 potential second round.

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$308,591
Data di fine
4 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...

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Domande frequenti

"Vincitore delle elezioni del Governatore di San Paolo" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 5 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Tarcísio de Freitas" a 98%, seguito da "Fernando Haddad" a 1%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 98¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 98% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Vincitore delle elezioni del Governatore di San Paolo" ha generato $308.6K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Apr 27, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Vincitore delle elezioni del Governatore di San Paolo", esplora i 5 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Vincitore delle elezioni del Governatore di San Paolo" è "Tarcísio de Freitas" a 98%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 98% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Fernando Haddad" a 1%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Vincitore delle elezioni del Governatore di San Paolo" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.