Recent observations and ensemble forecasts position September 2026 as likely the second-warmest September on record, with global mean temperatures tracking near or slightly below the 2023 benchmark of 16.38 °C while exceeding prior years. A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already near +2.8 °C and projected to peak above +3.5 °C, supplies additional warmth through atmospheric teleconnections, though the full seasonal lag means peak impacts may extend into late 2026 and 2027. Current ECMWF runs and preliminary analyses indicate the month is running roughly +0.94 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline, inside model uncertainty ranges that favor a top-two finish over a new record. Upcoming final ERA5 and other agency datasets will determine exact ranking against 2023 and 2024.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSettembre 2026 1°, 2° o 3° più caldo mai registrato?
Settembre 2026 1°, 2° o 3° più caldo mai registrato?
Secondo più caldo 82%
Il più caldo 14%
3° più caldo 6.8%
Quarto o inferiore 6.3%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 set 2026
Il più caldo
14%
Secondo più caldo
85%
3° più caldo
7%
Quarto o inferiore
6%
Secondo più caldo 82%
Il più caldo 14%
3° più caldo 6.8%
Quarto o inferiore 6.3%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 set 2026
Il più caldo
$349 Vol.
14%
Secondo più caldo
$1 Vol.
85%
3° più caldo
$191 Vol.
7%
Quarto o inferiore
$250 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent observations and ensemble forecasts position September 2026 as likely the second-warmest September on record, with global mean temperatures tracking near or slightly below the 2023 benchmark of 16.38 °C while exceeding prior years. A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already near +2.8 °C and projected to peak above +3.5 °C, supplies additional warmth through atmospheric teleconnections, though the full seasonal lag means peak impacts may extend into late 2026 and 2027. Current ECMWF runs and preliminary analyses indicate the month is running roughly +0.94 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline, inside model uncertainty ranges that favor a top-two finish over a new record. Upcoming final ERA5 and other agency datasets will determine exact ranking against 2023 and 2024.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Mercato aperto: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Volume
$791Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent observations and ensemble forecasts position September 2026 as likely the second-warmest September on record, with global mean temperatures tracking near or slightly below the 2023 benchmark of 16.38 °C while exceeding prior years. A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already near +2.8 °C and projected to peak above +3.5 °C, supplies additional warmth through atmospheric teleconnections, though the full seasonal lag means peak impacts may extend into late 2026 and 2027. Current ECMWF runs and preliminary analyses indicate the month is running roughly +0.94 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline, inside model uncertainty ranges that favor a top-two finish over a new record. Upcoming final ERA5 and other agency datasets will determine exact ranking against 2023 and 2024.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$791Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent observations and ensemble forecasts position September 2026 as likely the second-warmest September on record, with global mean temperatures tracking near or slightly below the 2023 benchmark of 16.38 °C while exceeding prior years. A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already near +2.8 °C and projected to peak above +3.5 °C, supplies additional warmth through atmospheric teleconnections, though the full seasonal lag means peak impacts may extend into late 2026 and 2027. Current ECMWF runs and preliminary analyses indicate the month is running roughly +0.94 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline, inside model uncertainty ranges that favor a top-two finish over a new record. Upcoming final ERA5 and other agency datasets will determine exact ranking against 2023 and 2024.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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