Recent polling aggregates project the CAQ at roughly 22-24% support heading into the October 5 vote, placing it behind the PQ and in a statistical tie with the Liberals in several surveys, amid a fragmented field that includes a rising Conservative Party. Seat models reflect high uncertainty, with CAQ outcomes ranging from single digits to the low forties depending on vote efficiency across regions and the new 127-riding map. Leadership transition to Christine Fréchette, combined with voter fatigue over the incumbent record on spending and specific projects, has contributed to the decline from the party's 2022 majority. Recent debates have kept pressure on the CAQ platform, while regional patterns—stronger suburban and Quebec City performance offset by weakness in Montreal—sustain the spread between the leading Polymarket bins. Late-campaign shifts in turnout or Conservative consolidation could still alter the final seat tally.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato30+ 34%
20-24 29%
<5 15.6%
5-9 13.5%
$20,574 Vol.
$20,574 Vol.
5 ott 2026
<5
13%
5-9
13%
10-14
8%
15-19
7%
20-24
29%
25-29
13%
30+
34%
30+ 34%
20-24 29%
<5 15.6%
5-9 13.5%
$20,574 Vol.
$20,574 Vol.
5 ott 2026
<5
$1,410 Vol.
13%
5-9
$1,984 Vol.
13%
10-14
$3,537 Vol.
8%
15-19
$1,896 Vol.
7%
20-24
$3,556 Vol.
29%
25-29
$1,794 Vol.
13%
30+
$6,396 Vol.
34%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates project the CAQ at roughly 22-24% support heading into the October 5 vote, placing it behind the PQ and in a statistical tie with the Liberals in several surveys, amid a fragmented field that includes a rising Conservative Party. Seat models reflect high uncertainty, with CAQ outcomes ranging from single digits to the low forties depending on vote efficiency across regions and the new 127-riding map. Leadership transition to Christine Fréchette, combined with voter fatigue over the incumbent record on spending and specific projects, has contributed to the decline from the party's 2022 majority. Recent debates have kept pressure on the CAQ platform, while regional patterns—stronger suburban and Quebec City performance offset by weakness in Montreal—sustain the spread between the leading Polymarket bins. Late-campaign shifts in turnout or Conservative consolidation could still alter the final seat tally.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Mercato aperto: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volume
$20,574Data di fine
5 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates project the CAQ at roughly 22-24% support heading into the October 5 vote, placing it behind the PQ and in a statistical tie with the Liberals in several surveys, amid a fragmented field that includes a rising Conservative Party. Seat models reflect high uncertainty, with CAQ outcomes ranging from single digits to the low forties depending on vote efficiency across regions and the new 127-riding map. Leadership transition to Christine Fréchette, combined with voter fatigue over the incumbent record on spending and specific projects, has contributed to the decline from the party's 2022 majority. Recent debates have kept pressure on the CAQ platform, while regional patterns—stronger suburban and Quebec City performance offset by weakness in Montreal—sustain the spread between the leading Polymarket bins. Late-campaign shifts in turnout or Conservative consolidation could still alter the final seat tally.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$20,574Data di fine
5 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling aggregates project the CAQ at roughly 22-24% support heading into the October 5 vote, placing it behind the PQ and in a statistical tie with the Liberals in several surveys, amid a fragmented field that includes a rising Conservative Party. Seat models reflect high uncertainty, with CAQ outcomes ranging from single digits to the low forties depending on vote efficiency across regions and the new 127-riding map. Leadership transition to Christine Fréchette, combined with voter fatigue over the incumbent record on spending and specific projects, has contributed to the decline from the party's 2022 majority. Recent debates have kept pressure on the CAQ platform, while regional patterns—stronger suburban and Quebec City performance offset by weakness in Montreal—sustain the spread between the leading Polymarket bins. Late-campaign shifts in turnout or Conservative consolidation could still alter the final seat tally.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti