Cait Conley holds a trader consensus lead in the NY-17 House race because the June 2026 Democratic primary produced a unified nominee with strong national security credentials and broad party support, positioning Democrats to contest a seat that Kamala Harris carried in 2024. The district’s toss-up rating from the Cook Political Report reflects its suburban Hudson Valley composition and narrow 2024 presidential margin, making it one of the most competitive Republican-held seats heading into the November general election. Incumbent Mike Lawler’s prior victories relied on outperforming the district’s partisan lean, but the resolved Democratic field and early positioning around issues such as taxes, healthcare access, and bipartisanship have kept the implied probability close to even rather than favoring the incumbent. No major new polling or campaign events have shifted the balance since the primary.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$14,827 Vol.
$14,827 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Cait Conley (D)
60%
Mike Lawler (R)
41%
$14,827 Vol.
$14,827 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Cait Conley (D)
$6,165 Vol.
60%
Mike Lawler (R)
$8,662 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Cait Conley holds a trader consensus lead in the NY-17 House race because the June 2026 Democratic primary produced a unified nominee with strong national security credentials and broad party support, positioning Democrats to contest a seat that Kamala Harris carried in 2024. The district’s toss-up rating from the Cook Political Report reflects its suburban Hudson Valley composition and narrow 2024 presidential margin, making it one of the most competitive Republican-held seats heading into the November general election. Incumbent Mike Lawler’s prior victories relied on outperforming the district’s partisan lean, but the resolved Democratic field and early positioning around issues such as taxes, healthcare access, and bipartisanship have kept the implied probability close to even rather than favoring the incumbent. No major new polling or campaign events have shifted the balance since the primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$14,827Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Cait Conley holds a trader consensus lead in the NY-17 House race because the June 2026 Democratic primary produced a unified nominee with strong national security credentials and broad party support, positioning Democrats to contest a seat that Kamala Harris carried in 2024. The district’s toss-up rating from the Cook Political Report reflects its suburban Hudson Valley composition and narrow 2024 presidential margin, making it one of the most competitive Republican-held seats heading into the November general election. Incumbent Mike Lawler’s prior victories relied on outperforming the district’s partisan lean, but the resolved Democratic field and early positioning around issues such as taxes, healthcare access, and bipartisanship have kept the implied probability close to even rather than favoring the incumbent. No major new polling or campaign events have shifted the balance since the primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$14,827Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Cait Conley holds a trader consensus lead in the NY-17 House race because the June 2026 Democratic primary produced a unified nominee with strong national security credentials and broad party support, positioning Democrats to contest a seat that Kamala Harris carried in 2024. The district’s toss-up rating from the Cook Political Report reflects its suburban Hudson Valley composition and narrow 2024 presidential margin, making it one of the most competitive Republican-held seats heading into the November general election. Incumbent Mike Lawler’s prior victories relied on outperforming the district’s partisan lean, but the resolved Democratic field and early positioning around issues such as taxes, healthcare access, and bipartisanship have kept the implied probability close to even rather than favoring the incumbent. No major new polling or campaign events have shifted the balance since the primary.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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