Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a dominant position in the 2026 Kansas Senate race, reflected in trader consensus around 80 percent probability of victory over Democrat Adam Hamilton. Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, and the state’s consistent Republican presidential margins, including a 16-point Trump win in 2024, underpin the structural advantage for the GOP nominee. Marshall secured his party’s nomination comfortably in the August 4 primary and benefits from incumbency in a midterm environment. Hamilton, a prominent United Methodist pastor, won a crowded Democratic primary and posted early fundraising strength that prompted some forecasters to adjust the race from safe to likely Republican. Limited recent polling shows a competitive head-to-head but still favors the incumbent, with no major developments since the primaries altering the fundamental dynamics ahead of the November 3 general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$46,467 Vol.
$46,467 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Roger Marshall (R)
81%
Adam Hamilton (D)
20%
$46,467 Vol.
$46,467 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Roger Marshall (R)
$30,174 Vol.
81%
Adam Hamilton (D)
$16,293 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a dominant position in the 2026 Kansas Senate race, reflected in trader consensus around 80 percent probability of victory over Democrat Adam Hamilton. Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, and the state’s consistent Republican presidential margins, including a 16-point Trump win in 2024, underpin the structural advantage for the GOP nominee. Marshall secured his party’s nomination comfortably in the August 4 primary and benefits from incumbency in a midterm environment. Hamilton, a prominent United Methodist pastor, won a crowded Democratic primary and posted early fundraising strength that prompted some forecasters to adjust the race from safe to likely Republican. Limited recent polling shows a competitive head-to-head but still favors the incumbent, with no major developments since the primaries altering the fundamental dynamics ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercato aperto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$46,467Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a dominant position in the 2026 Kansas Senate race, reflected in trader consensus around 80 percent probability of victory over Democrat Adam Hamilton. Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, and the state’s consistent Republican presidential margins, including a 16-point Trump win in 2024, underpin the structural advantage for the GOP nominee. Marshall secured his party’s nomination comfortably in the August 4 primary and benefits from incumbency in a midterm environment. Hamilton, a prominent United Methodist pastor, won a crowded Democratic primary and posted early fundraising strength that prompted some forecasters to adjust the race from safe to likely Republican. Limited recent polling shows a competitive head-to-head but still favors the incumbent, with no major developments since the primaries altering the fundamental dynamics ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$46,467Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a dominant position in the 2026 Kansas Senate race, reflected in trader consensus around 80 percent probability of victory over Democrat Adam Hamilton. Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, and the state’s consistent Republican presidential margins, including a 16-point Trump win in 2024, underpin the structural advantage for the GOP nominee. Marshall secured his party’s nomination comfortably in the August 4 primary and benefits from incumbency in a midterm environment. Hamilton, a prominent United Methodist pastor, won a crowded Democratic primary and posted early fundraising strength that prompted some forecasters to adjust the race from safe to likely Republican. Limited recent polling shows a competitive head-to-head but still favors the incumbent, with no major developments since the primaries altering the fundamental dynamics ahead of the November 3 general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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