**Recent Q2 2026 GDP revisions and forward-looking data releases are anchoring trader expectations for modest positive growth in Q3.** The Cabinet Office’s final Q2 reading showed the economy expanding 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 1.4% annualized—up from the preliminary 0.3%/1.1%—supported by a milder capital-expenditure contraction and resilient net exports, marking the third straight quarter of expansion. Private consumption remained flat amid elevated import costs tied to yen weakness and Middle East tensions. Market-implied odds cluster around the 0.0–1.6% annualized bands because analysts project a moderation from Q2 strength. Daiichi Life Research forecasts +0.7% annualized for July–September, citing softer durable-goods demand offset by wage gains and energy subsidies, while broader consensus points to around 0.6%. A tight labor market (unemployment 2.4–2.5%) and solid real-wage growth (up 2.4% in July) provide a floor, yet the Bank of Japan’s expected 25-basis-point hike to 1.25% on September 18 and lingering price pressures introduce downside risks to domestic demand. Key swing factors include September CPI and industrial-production prints, the scale of any further BOJ tightening, and export performance amid global uncertainty. These elements keep the distribution of probabilities relatively flat across low-single-digit outcomes rather than concentrating on a single range.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato0.8%–1.6% 26%
0.0%–0.8% 19.5%
-0.8%–0.0% 13%
1.6%–2.4% 11.3%
$24,951 Vol.
$24,951 Vol.
15 nov 2026
<-2.4%
4%
-2.4%– -1.6%
4%
-1.6%– -0.8%
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
13%
0.0%–0.8%
20%
0.8%–1.6%
26%
1.6%–2.4%
11%
2.4%–3.2%
6%
3.2%–4.0%
6%
4.0%+
1%
0.8%–1.6% 26%
0.0%–0.8% 19.5%
-0.8%–0.0% 13%
1.6%–2.4% 11.3%
$24,951 Vol.
$24,951 Vol.
15 nov 2026
<-2.4%
$338 Vol.
4%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$3,733 Vol.
4%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$267 Vol.
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
$2,239 Vol.
13%
0.0%–0.8%
$10,866 Vol.
20%
0.8%–1.6%
$1,804 Vol.
26%
1.6%–2.4%
$635 Vol.
11%
2.4%–3.2%
$3,328 Vol.
6%
3.2%–4.0%
$1,219 Vol.
6%
4.0%+
$521 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html**Recent Q2 2026 GDP revisions and forward-looking data releases are anchoring trader expectations for modest positive growth in Q3.** The Cabinet Office’s final Q2 reading showed the economy expanding 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 1.4% annualized—up from the preliminary 0.3%/1.1%—supported by a milder capital-expenditure contraction and resilient net exports, marking the third straight quarter of expansion. Private consumption remained flat amid elevated import costs tied to yen weakness and Middle East tensions.
Market-implied odds cluster around the 0.0–1.6% annualized bands because analysts project a moderation from Q2 strength. Daiichi Life Research forecasts +0.7% annualized for July–September, citing softer durable-goods demand offset by wage gains and energy subsidies, while broader consensus points to around 0.6%. A tight labor market (unemployment 2.4–2.5%) and solid real-wage growth (up 2.4% in July) provide a floor, yet the Bank of Japan’s expected 25-basis-point hike to 1.25% on September 18 and lingering price pressures introduce downside risks to domestic demand.
Key swing factors include September CPI and industrial-production prints, the scale of any further BOJ tightening, and export performance amid global uncertainty. These elements keep the distribution of probabilities relatively flat across low-single-digit outcomes rather than concentrating on a single range.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Mercato aperto: Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
Volume
$24,951Data di fine
16 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html**Recent Q2 2026 GDP revisions and forward-looking data releases are anchoring trader expectations for modest positive growth in Q3.** The Cabinet Office’s final Q2 reading showed the economy expanding 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 1.4% annualized—up from the preliminary 0.3%/1.1%—supported by a milder capital-expenditure contraction and resilient net exports, marking the third straight quarter of expansion. Private consumption remained flat amid elevated import costs tied to yen weakness and Middle East tensions.
Market-implied odds cluster around the 0.0–1.6% annualized bands because analysts project a moderation from Q2 strength. Daiichi Life Research forecasts +0.7% annualized for July–September, citing softer durable-goods demand offset by wage gains and energy subsidies, while broader consensus points to around 0.6%. A tight labor market (unemployment 2.4–2.5%) and solid real-wage growth (up 2.4% in July) provide a floor, yet the Bank of Japan’s expected 25-basis-point hike to 1.25% on September 18 and lingering price pressures introduce downside risks to domestic demand.
Key swing factors include September CPI and industrial-production prints, the scale of any further BOJ tightening, and export performance amid global uncertainty. These elements keep the distribution of probabilities relatively flat across low-single-digit outcomes rather than concentrating on a single range.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volume
$24,951Data di fine
16 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Recent Q2 2026 GDP revisions and forward-looking data releases are anchoring trader expectations for modest positive growth in Q3.** The Cabinet Office’s final Q2 reading showed the economy expanding 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 1.4% annualized—up from the preliminary 0.3%/1.1%—supported by a milder capital-expenditure contraction and resilient net exports, marking the third straight quarter of expansion. Private consumption remained flat amid elevated import costs tied to yen weakness and Middle East tensions. Market-implied odds cluster around the 0.0–1.6% annualized bands because analysts project a moderation from Q2 strength. Daiichi Life Research forecasts +0.7% annualized for July–September, citing softer durable-goods demand offset by wage gains and energy subsidies, while broader consensus points to around 0.6%. A tight labor market (unemployment 2.4–2.5%) and solid real-wage growth (up 2.4% in July) provide a floor, yet the Bank of Japan’s expected 25-basis-point hike to 1.25% on September 18 and lingering price pressures introduce downside risks to domestic demand. Key swing factors include September CPI and industrial-production prints, the scale of any further BOJ tightening, and export performance amid global uncertainty. These elements keep the distribution of probabilities relatively flat across low-single-digit outcomes rather than concentrating on a single range.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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