Recent September ISM Services PMI at 54.9, down 0.5 points from August and slightly below consensus, reflects moderating business activity and new orders alongside persistent expansion for the 27th straight month. Elevated input costs, with the prices index surging to 74.0—the highest since mid-2022—driven by fuel, tariffs, and supply-chain strains from Middle East tensions, weigh on sentiment and reinforce inflation concerns ahead of the October CPI and FOMC meeting. Employment edged above 50 while supplier deliveries slowed further, signaling tight capacity. These dynamics create balanced trader expectations for October, with closely matched probabilities around the 53–54.9 range reflecting uncertainty over whether cost pressures will further temper growth or support steady readings near the 12-month average of 54.1.