Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and resilient U.S. economic growth underpin the 74.5% market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase at the December FOMC meeting. Following the October 28 hold at 3.75%-4.00%, with two dissents favoring immediate tightening, recent CPI data showed a 0.6% monthly rise and 3.7% year-over-year advance in September, while the labor market remains solid near 4.2% unemployment. Trader consensus, reflected in these odds, aligns with economist surveys anticipating gradual policy normalization. The December 8-9 gathering, which includes updated economic projections, represents the primary near-term catalyst that could confirm or adjust the current rate-path expectations.