Renato Casagrande (PSB) holds a commanding lead in Espírito Santo’s October 4 Senate race for one of two seats, driven by his three prior gubernatorial terms, high name recognition, and consistent polling dominance through early September. Multiple surveys from Real Time Big Data, Quaest, and Paraná Pesquisas show him at 28–52% in consolidated or first-vote scenarios, far ahead of fragmented rivals including Sérgio Meneguelli, Rose de Freitas, Fabiano Contarato, Maguinha Malta, and Evair de Melo, who cluster in single digits. His broad coalition and recent exit from the governorship with strong approval ratings underpin trader consensus on his first-place probability. A late scandal, turnout surge for opponents, or polling miss remain the primary risks that could alter the outcome before election day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoRenato Casagrande 96.2%
Maguinha Malta 1.1%
Leonardo Monjardim <1%
Rodney Miranda <1%
$13,099 Vol.
$13,099 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Renato Casagrande
96%
Maguinha Malta
1%
Leonardo Monjardim
1%
Rodney Miranda
1%
Callegari
1%
Marcos do Val
<1%
Fabiano Contarato
<1%
Professor Fabian
<1%
Sergio Meneguelli
<1%
Evair de Melo
<1%
Rose de Freitas
<1%
Renato Casagrande 96.2%
Maguinha Malta 1.1%
Leonardo Monjardim <1%
Rodney Miranda <1%
$13,099 Vol.
$13,099 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Renato Casagrande
$5,875 Vol.
96%
Maguinha Malta
$976 Vol.
1%
Leonardo Monjardim
$829 Vol.
1%
Rodney Miranda
$711 Vol.
1%
Callegari
$804 Vol.
1%
Marcos do Val
$725 Vol.
<1%
Fabiano Contarato
$739 Vol.
<1%
Professor Fabian
$433 Vol.
<1%
Sergio Meneguelli
$736 Vol.
<1%
Evair de Melo
$684 Vol.
<1%
Rose de Freitas
$587 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Renato Casagrande (PSB) holds a commanding lead in Espírito Santo’s October 4 Senate race for one of two seats, driven by his three prior gubernatorial terms, high name recognition, and consistent polling dominance through early September. Multiple surveys from Real Time Big Data, Quaest, and Paraná Pesquisas show him at 28–52% in consolidated or first-vote scenarios, far ahead of fragmented rivals including Sérgio Meneguelli, Rose de Freitas, Fabiano Contarato, Maguinha Malta, and Evair de Melo, who cluster in single digits. His broad coalition and recent exit from the governorship with strong approval ratings underpin trader consensus on his first-place probability. A late scandal, turnout surge for opponents, or polling miss remain the primary risks that could alter the outcome before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercato aperto: Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ET
Volume
$13,099Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Renato Casagrande (PSB) holds a commanding lead in Espírito Santo’s October 4 Senate race for one of two seats, driven by his three prior gubernatorial terms, high name recognition, and consistent polling dominance through early September. Multiple surveys from Real Time Big Data, Quaest, and Paraná Pesquisas show him at 28–52% in consolidated or first-vote scenarios, far ahead of fragmented rivals including Sérgio Meneguelli, Rose de Freitas, Fabiano Contarato, Maguinha Malta, and Evair de Melo, who cluster in single digits. His broad coalition and recent exit from the governorship with strong approval ratings underpin trader consensus on his first-place probability. A late scandal, turnout surge for opponents, or polling miss remain the primary risks that could alter the outcome before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$13,099Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Renato Casagrande (PSB) holds a commanding lead in Espírito Santo’s October 4 Senate race for one of two seats, driven by his three prior gubernatorial terms, high name recognition, and consistent polling dominance through early September. Multiple surveys from Real Time Big Data, Quaest, and Paraná Pesquisas show him at 28–52% in consolidated or first-vote scenarios, far ahead of fragmented rivals including Sérgio Meneguelli, Rose de Freitas, Fabiano Contarato, Maguinha Malta, and Evair de Melo, who cluster in single digits. His broad coalition and recent exit from the governorship with strong approval ratings underpin trader consensus on his first-place probability. A late scandal, turnout surge for opponents, or polling miss remain the primary risks that could alter the outcome before election day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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