Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 53.8% of the vote in California’s 45th district, facing Republican Chuong Vo in the November general election. The district’s D+1 partisan voting index, large Vietnamese-American and Asian voter base, and Democratic voter registration edge support Tran’s position after he flipped the seat by 653 votes in 2024. Tran’s substantial fundraising lead—over $4 million raised versus Vo’s roughly $500,000—combined with unified Democratic backing and the consolidation of the Republican primary field behind a single challenger, has reinforced trader expectations. Forecasters rate the contest Likely or Lean Democratic, with no major late shifts reported in the months following the primary.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCA-45 House Election Winner
CA-45 House Election Winner
$35,629 Vol.
$35,629 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Derek Tran (D)
90%
Chuong Vo (R)
9%
$35,629 Vol.
$35,629 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Derek Tran (D)
$19,878 Vol.
90%
Chuong Vo (R)
$15,751 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 53.8% of the vote in California’s 45th district, facing Republican Chuong Vo in the November general election. The district’s D+1 partisan voting index, large Vietnamese-American and Asian voter base, and Democratic voter registration edge support Tran’s position after he flipped the seat by 653 votes in 2024. Tran’s substantial fundraising lead—over $4 million raised versus Vo’s roughly $500,000—combined with unified Democratic backing and the consolidation of the Republican primary field behind a single challenger, has reinforced trader expectations. Forecasters rate the contest Likely or Lean Democratic, with no major late shifts reported in the months following the primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$35,629Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 53.8% of the vote in California’s 45th district, facing Republican Chuong Vo in the November general election. The district’s D+1 partisan voting index, large Vietnamese-American and Asian voter base, and Democratic voter registration edge support Tran’s position after he flipped the seat by 653 votes in 2024. Tran’s substantial fundraising lead—over $4 million raised versus Vo’s roughly $500,000—combined with unified Democratic backing and the consolidation of the Republican primary field behind a single challenger, has reinforced trader expectations. Forecasters rate the contest Likely or Lean Democratic, with no major late shifts reported in the months following the primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,629Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 53.8% of the vote in California’s 45th district, facing Republican Chuong Vo in the November general election. The district’s D+1 partisan voting index, large Vietnamese-American and Asian voter base, and Democratic voter registration edge support Tran’s position after he flipped the seat by 653 votes in 2024. Tran’s substantial fundraising lead—over $4 million raised versus Vo’s roughly $500,000—combined with unified Democratic backing and the consolidation of the Republican primary field behind a single challenger, has reinforced trader expectations. Forecasters rate the contest Likely or Lean Democratic, with no major late shifts reported in the months following the primary.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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