Anthropic’s claude-fable-5.1-max leads with 82.5% implied probability because recent benchmark results and capability demonstrations have positioned it ahead of competing large language models in reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks. Traders appear to view the model’s architecture upgrades and training refinements as decisive advantages that are unlikely to be overtaken before September 21. The modest 14.5% on “Other” reflects limited expectations for surprise releases from OpenAI, Google, or xAI in the next week, while the sub-2% odds on various claude-opus-5 variants indicate the market views those as incremental rather than frontier-shifting. Key near-term catalysts include any last-minute safety or performance updates from Anthropic ahead of the resolution date.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale del 21 settembre?
Il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale del 21 settembre?
claude-fable-5.1-max 83%
Altro 16%
claude-opus-5-max 1.7%
claude-opus-5-high 1.4%
$12,688 Vol.
$12,688 Vol.
21 set 2026
claude-fable-5.1-max
83%
Altro
16%
claude-opus-5-max
2%
claude-opus-5-high
1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
1%
claude-fable-5.1-max 83%
Altro 16%
claude-opus-5-max 1.7%
claude-opus-5-high 1.4%
$12,688 Vol.
$12,688 Vol.
21 set 2026
claude-fable-5.1-max
$5,609 Vol.
83%
Altro
$5,486 Vol.
16%
claude-opus-5-max
$599 Vol.
2%
claude-opus-5-high
$430 Vol.
1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$564 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s claude-fable-5.1-max leads with 82.5% implied probability because recent benchmark results and capability demonstrations have positioned it ahead of competing large language models in reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks. Traders appear to view the model’s architecture upgrades and training refinements as decisive advantages that are unlikely to be overtaken before September 21. The modest 14.5% on “Other” reflects limited expectations for surprise releases from OpenAI, Google, or xAI in the next week, while the sub-2% odds on various claude-opus-5 variants indicate the market views those as incremental rather than frontier-shifting. Key near-term catalysts include any last-minute safety or performance updates from Anthropic ahead of the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercato aperto: Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ET
Volume
$12,688Data di fine
21 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s claude-fable-5.1-max leads with 82.5% implied probability because recent benchmark results and capability demonstrations have positioned it ahead of competing large language models in reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks. Traders appear to view the model’s architecture upgrades and training refinements as decisive advantages that are unlikely to be overtaken before September 21. The modest 14.5% on “Other” reflects limited expectations for surprise releases from OpenAI, Google, or xAI in the next week, while the sub-2% odds on various claude-opus-5 variants indicate the market views those as incremental rather than frontier-shifting. Key near-term catalysts include any last-minute safety or performance updates from Anthropic ahead of the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$12,688Data di fine
21 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s claude-fable-5.1-max leads with 82.5% implied probability because recent benchmark results and capability demonstrations have positioned it ahead of competing large language models in reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks. Traders appear to view the model’s architecture upgrades and training refinements as decisive advantages that are unlikely to be overtaken before September 21. The modest 14.5% on “Other” reflects limited expectations for surprise releases from OpenAI, Google, or xAI in the next week, while the sub-2% odds on various claude-opus-5 variants indicate the market views those as incremental rather than frontier-shifting. Key near-term catalysts include any last-minute safety or performance updates from Anthropic ahead of the resolution date.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Claude-fable-5.1-max sarà il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale il 14 settembre 2026?
94%
Sì
Il prossimo modello Claude Opus debutterà con un punteggio di almeno 1500 entro il 31 dicembre 2026?
79%
Sì
Anthropic avrà il modello di intelligenza artificiale numero uno alla fine di settembre 2026?
93%
Sì
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti