Anthropic’s September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 Max drives the 87.5% market-implied odds, as the model posts large gains on coding, agentic reasoning, and scientific benchmarks like Terminal-Bench-Science 0.1 (52.6% versus roughly half that for Fable 5). The upgrade adds stronger long-horizon task handling and lower effective cost at moderate effort levels while retaining frontier safeguards, widening its lead over the July-launched Claude Opus 5 variants that trail at under 1%. With no competing frontier releases reported in the first ten days of September and the September 14 snapshot only days away, traders see limited room for an upset before the next evaluation cycle.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale del 14 settembre?
Il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale del 14 settembre?
claude-fable-5.1-max 88%
Altro 12%
claude-opus-5-high <1%
claude-opus-5-max <1%
$20,261 Vol.
$20,261 Vol.
14 set 2026
claude-fable-5.1-max
88%
Altro
12%
claude-opus-5-high
1%
claude-opus-5-max
<1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
<1%
claude-fable-5.1-max 88%
Altro 12%
claude-opus-5-high <1%
claude-opus-5-max <1%
$20,261 Vol.
$20,261 Vol.
14 set 2026
claude-fable-5.1-max
$9,175 Vol.
88%
Altro
$7,945 Vol.
12%
claude-opus-5-high
$1,780 Vol.
1%
claude-opus-5-max
$953 Vol.
<1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$408 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 Max drives the 87.5% market-implied odds, as the model posts large gains on coding, agentic reasoning, and scientific benchmarks like Terminal-Bench-Science 0.1 (52.6% versus roughly half that for Fable 5). The upgrade adds stronger long-horizon task handling and lower effective cost at moderate effort levels while retaining frontier safeguards, widening its lead over the July-launched Claude Opus 5 variants that trail at under 1%. With no competing frontier releases reported in the first ten days of September and the September 14 snapshot only days away, traders see limited room for an upset before the next evaluation cycle.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercato aperto: Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ET
Volume
$20,261Data di fine
14 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 Max drives the 87.5% market-implied odds, as the model posts large gains on coding, agentic reasoning, and scientific benchmarks like Terminal-Bench-Science 0.1 (52.6% versus roughly half that for Fable 5). The upgrade adds stronger long-horizon task handling and lower effective cost at moderate effort levels while retaining frontier safeguards, widening its lead over the July-launched Claude Opus 5 variants that trail at under 1%. With no competing frontier releases reported in the first ten days of September and the September 14 snapshot only days away, traders see limited room for an upset before the next evaluation cycle.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$20,261Data di fine
14 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 Max drives the 87.5% market-implied odds, as the model posts large gains on coding, agentic reasoning, and scientific benchmarks like Terminal-Bench-Science 0.1 (52.6% versus roughly half that for Fable 5). The upgrade adds stronger long-horizon task handling and lower effective cost at moderate effort levels while retaining frontier safeguards, widening its lead over the July-launched Claude Opus 5 variants that trail at under 1%. With no competing frontier releases reported in the first ten days of September and the September 14 snapshot only days away, traders see limited room for an upset before the next evaluation cycle.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Claude-fable-5.1-max sarà il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale il 21 settembre 2026?
74%
Sì
Il prossimo modello Claude Opus debutterà con un punteggio di almeno 1500 entro il 31 dicembre 2026?
64%
Sì
Anthropic avrà il modello di intelligenza artificiale numero uno alla fine di settembre 2026?
87%
Sì
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