OpenAI has not issued any formal announcement declaring AGI achieved, despite the early September 2026 launch of GPT-6 Astra and executive comments framing it as the start of an “AGI era.” Leadership statements highlight strong benchmark gains in agentic tasks, mathematics, and research automation, yet emphasize persistent gaps in alignment, monitorability, and safe deployment of frontier systems. Sam Altman has projected an internal AGI-capable system by year-end under the company’s definition of outperforming humans on most economically valuable work, but recent interviews stress engineering barriers that make near-term public claims unlikely. Traders view these factors, combined with the short timeline remaining in 2026, as supporting the 82.5% market-implied probability of “No.”