Recent Houthi seizures of Mokha, Perim Island, and other Red Sea coastal positions have intensified threats to Bab el-Mandeb traffic, driving selective rerouting and elevated war-risk insurance premiums that suppress volumes below pre-2026 norms of 50–60 daily transits. Kpler and AIS data show commodity vessel crossings falling to 48–51 over the most recent weekend from 57 prior, with August averages near 21.7 observed transits per day and intermittent daily lows in the teens amid the Saudi-linked embargo. These pressures position 25–29 as the market’s consensus range, reflecting partial stabilization in non-Saudi traffic while full recovery remains constrained. No major de-escalation signals have emerged ahead of month-end resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNumero medio di navi in transito sullo stretto di Bab el-Mandeb alla fine di settembre?
Numero medio di navi in transito sullo stretto di Bab el-Mandeb alla fine di settembre?
25-29 66%
30-34 14.1%
<25 11.7%
35-39 4.0%
$45,463 Vol.
$45,463 Vol.
30 set 2026
<25
12%
25-29
66%
30-34
14%
35-39
4%
40+
2%
25-29 66%
30-34 14.1%
<25 11.7%
35-39 4.0%
$45,463 Vol.
$45,463 Vol.
30 set 2026
<25
$18,373 Vol.
12%
25-29
$12,844 Vol.
66%
30-34
$6,718 Vol.
14%
35-39
$4,058 Vol.
4%
40+
$3,469 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.Recent Houthi seizures of Mokha, Perim Island, and other Red Sea coastal positions have intensified threats to Bab el-Mandeb traffic, driving selective rerouting and elevated war-risk insurance premiums that suppress volumes below pre-2026 norms of 50–60 daily transits. Kpler and AIS data show commodity vessel crossings falling to 48–51 over the most recent weekend from 57 prior, with August averages near 21.7 observed transits per day and intermittent daily lows in the teens amid the Saudi-linked embargo. These pressures position 25–29 as the market’s consensus range, reflecting partial stabilization in non-Saudi traffic while full recovery remains constrained. No major de-escalation signals have emerged ahead of month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.
Mercato aperto: Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Volume
$45,463Data di fine
30 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
IMF PortWatchRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.Recent Houthi seizures of Mokha, Perim Island, and other Red Sea coastal positions have intensified threats to Bab el-Mandeb traffic, driving selective rerouting and elevated war-risk insurance premiums that suppress volumes below pre-2026 norms of 50–60 daily transits. Kpler and AIS data show commodity vessel crossings falling to 48–51 over the most recent weekend from 57 prior, with August averages near 21.7 observed transits per day and intermittent daily lows in the teens amid the Saudi-linked embargo. These pressures position 25–29 as the market’s consensus range, reflecting partial stabilization in non-Saudi traffic while full recovery remains constrained. No major de-escalation signals have emerged ahead of month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.
Volume
$45,463Data di fine
30 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
IMF PortWatchRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi seizures of Mokha, Perim Island, and other Red Sea coastal positions have intensified threats to Bab el-Mandeb traffic, driving selective rerouting and elevated war-risk insurance premiums that suppress volumes below pre-2026 norms of 50–60 daily transits. Kpler and AIS data show commodity vessel crossings falling to 48–51 over the most recent weekend from 57 prior, with August averages near 21.7 observed transits per day and intermittent daily lows in the teens amid the Saudi-linked embargo. These pressures position 25–29 as the market’s consensus range, reflecting partial stabilization in non-Saudi traffic while full recovery remains constrained. No major de-escalation signals have emerged ahead of month-end resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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