Iran maintains administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island, a strategically positioned territory near the Strait of Hormuz that it has held since 1971 amid longstanding UAE sovereignty claims. In July 2026, U.S. strikes targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard coastal defense systems, missile facilities, and related infrastructure on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb during escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict, aiming to degrade threats to shipping lanes. Iran has since reinforced missile deployments across the three disputed islands and announced plans for a Persian Gulf exclusion zone. Diplomatic pressure from the UAE and GCC continues through statements urging negotiations or ICJ referral, while no verified shift in on-ground control or formal transfer has occurred. Further military operations or diplomatic developments in the ongoing conflict could influence the island's status within any defined resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'isola di Abu Musa non è più sotto il controllo iraniano da...?
L'isola di Abu Musa non è più sotto il controllo iraniano da...?
$94,603 Vol.
30 set 2026
30 settembre
3%
$94,603 Vol.
30 settembre
$1,204 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island, a strategically positioned territory near the Strait of Hormuz that it has held since 1971 amid longstanding UAE sovereignty claims. In July 2026, U.S. strikes targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard coastal defense systems, missile facilities, and related infrastructure on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb during escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict, aiming to degrade threats to shipping lanes. Iran has since reinforced missile deployments across the three disputed islands and announced plans for a Persian Gulf exclusion zone. Diplomatic pressure from the UAE and GCC continues through statements urging negotiations or ICJ referral, while no verified shift in on-ground control or formal transfer has occurred. Further military operations or diplomatic developments in the ongoing conflict could influence the island's status within any defined resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Aug 26, 2026, 11:05 AM ET
Volume
$94,603Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 26, 2026, 11:05 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island, a strategically positioned territory near the Strait of Hormuz that it has held since 1971 amid longstanding UAE sovereignty claims. In July 2026, U.S. strikes targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard coastal defense systems, missile facilities, and related infrastructure on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb during escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict, aiming to degrade threats to shipping lanes. Iran has since reinforced missile deployments across the three disputed islands and announced plans for a Persian Gulf exclusion zone. Diplomatic pressure from the UAE and GCC continues through statements urging negotiations or ICJ referral, while no verified shift in on-ground control or formal transfer has occurred. Further military operations or diplomatic developments in the ongoing conflict could influence the island's status within any defined resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$94,603Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 26, 2026, 11:05 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island, a strategically positioned territory near the Strait of Hormuz that it has held since 1971 amid longstanding UAE sovereignty claims. In July 2026, U.S. strikes targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard coastal defense systems, missile facilities, and related infrastructure on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb during escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict, aiming to degrade threats to shipping lanes. Iran has since reinforced missile deployments across the three disputed islands and announced plans for a Persian Gulf exclusion zone. Diplomatic pressure from the UAE and GCC continues through statements urging negotiations or ICJ referral, while no verified shift in on-ground control or formal transfer has occurred. Further military operations or diplomatic developments in the ongoing conflict could influence the island's status within any defined resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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