Traders assign a 68.5% implied probability to House passage of articles of impeachment against President Trump before the end of his term primarily because of anticipated Democratic gains in the November 2026 midterms. Multiple Democratic resolutions have already been introduced, including measures citing executive actions on immigration enforcement, federal funding disputes with states, and foreign policy decisions. House Minority Leader statements and committee rankings indicate that regaining majority control would prioritize such proceedings, which require only a simple majority vote. Current Republican House control keeps near-term odds low, around 2% for 2026, while low presidential approval ratings and polling trends increase the perceived likelihood of a chamber flip that would enable action before January 2029. Senate conviction remains structurally difficult but is not required for market resolution.