Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and seizure of Perim Island in September 2026 have raised strike risks and prompted a Saudi-linked shipping embargo since July, yet Bab el-Mandeb transits persist at reduced levels. Recent data show daily crossings averaging 25–36 vessels, down roughly 40–50 percent from pre-crisis baselines but well above the IMF PortWatch seven-day average of 10 arrivals that defines effective closure for the market. Saudi-backed Yemeni forces launched a counteroffensive in early October claiming partial coastal gains, while coalition intercepts continue and no merchant attacks have been confirmed since late August. Parallel Hormuz restrictions have shifted some oil flows toward the Red Sea, supporting limited recovery in container and tanker traffic despite elevated war-risk premiums and dark transits.