Recent IAEA Board resolutions citing Iran's safeguards non-compliance, combined with U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and the collapse of a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, have prompted Iranian parliamentary calls for NPT withdrawal under Article X. However, Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei stated on September 19 that no decision has been made, with any future step dependent on Washington's actions amid ongoing mediation. Iran continues to cite its longstanding religious decree against nuclear weapons while reducing IAEA access. Traders assign an 87.3% probability to "No" withdrawal before 2027, reflecting the gap between legislative pressure and executive decision-making, the three-month notice requirement, and Iran's pattern of using treaty threats for leverage in negotiations rather than immediate exit.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
13% peluang
$568,458 Vol.
$568,458 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
13% peluang
$568,458 Vol.
$568,458 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Recent IAEA Board resolutions citing Iran's safeguards non-compliance, combined with U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and the collapse of a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, have prompted Iranian parliamentary calls for NPT withdrawal under Article X. However, Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei stated on September 19 that no decision has been made, with any future step dependent on Washington's actions amid ongoing mediation. Iran continues to cite its longstanding religious decree against nuclear weapons while reducing IAEA access. Traders assign an 87.3% probability to "No" withdrawal before 2027, reflecting the gap between legislative pressure and executive decision-making, the three-month notice requirement, and Iran's pattern of using treaty threats for leverage in negotiations rather than immediate exit.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$568,458Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Recent IAEA Board resolutions citing Iran's safeguards non-compliance, combined with U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and the collapse of a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, have prompted Iranian parliamentary calls for NPT withdrawal under Article X. However, Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei stated on September 19 that no decision has been made, with any future step dependent on Washington's actions amid ongoing mediation. Iran continues to cite its longstanding religious decree against nuclear weapons while reducing IAEA access. Traders assign an 87.3% probability to "No" withdrawal before 2027, reflecting the gap between legislative pressure and executive decision-making, the three-month notice requirement, and Iran's pattern of using treaty threats for leverage in negotiations rather than immediate exit.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$568,458Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent IAEA Board resolutions citing Iran's safeguards non-compliance, combined with U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and the collapse of a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, have prompted Iranian parliamentary calls for NPT withdrawal under Article X. However, Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei stated on September 19 that no decision has been made, with any future step dependent on Washington's actions amid ongoing mediation. Iran continues to cite its longstanding religious decree against nuclear weapons while reducing IAEA access. Traders assign an 87.3% probability to "No" withdrawal before 2027, reflecting the gap between legislative pressure and executive decision-making, the three-month notice requirement, and Iran's pattern of using treaty threats for leverage in negotiations rather than immediate exit.
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