Heightened Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including control of Perim Island and Mokha by mid-September 2026, have elevated war-risk premiums to 0.7-1.0% of hull value and prompted selective rerouting, particularly for Saudi-linked tonnage. AIS and Kpler data show Bab el-Mandeb commodity-vessel transits averaging roughly 24-28 per day in the 10-16 September window, well below the 2023 baseline near 61, with inbound counts dropping sharply on some days and dark transits rising. Major carriers have restored limited Suez services, yet overall volumes remain suppressed by insurance costs, operational hazards, and the shift of Saudi crude exports toward alternative routes. These developments underpin trader consensus around the sub-170 outcome for the week of 14 September, reflecting sustained but reduced throughput amid ongoing regional volatility.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 14?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 14?
<170 71%
210-229 7%
190-209 7%
170-189 5%
$13,808 Vol.
$13,808 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<170
67%
170-189
12%
190-209
7%
210-229
7%
230+
3%
<170 71%
210-229 7%
190-209 7%
170-189 5%
$13,808 Vol.
$13,808 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<170
$5,493 Vol.
67%
170-189
$2,746 Vol.
12%
190-209
$2,723 Vol.
7%
210-229
$1,367 Vol.
7%
230+
$1,479 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Heightened Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including control of Perim Island and Mokha by mid-September 2026, have elevated war-risk premiums to 0.7-1.0% of hull value and prompted selective rerouting, particularly for Saudi-linked tonnage. AIS and Kpler data show Bab el-Mandeb commodity-vessel transits averaging roughly 24-28 per day in the 10-16 September window, well below the 2023 baseline near 61, with inbound counts dropping sharply on some days and dark transits rising. Major carriers have restored limited Suez services, yet overall volumes remain suppressed by insurance costs, operational hazards, and the shift of Saudi crude exports toward alternative routes. These developments underpin trader consensus around the sub-170 outcome for the week of 14 September, reflecting sustained but reduced throughput amid ongoing regional volatility.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$13,808Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Heightened Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including control of Perim Island and Mokha by mid-September 2026, have elevated war-risk premiums to 0.7-1.0% of hull value and prompted selective rerouting, particularly for Saudi-linked tonnage. AIS and Kpler data show Bab el-Mandeb commodity-vessel transits averaging roughly 24-28 per day in the 10-16 September window, well below the 2023 baseline near 61, with inbound counts dropping sharply on some days and dark transits rising. Major carriers have restored limited Suez services, yet overall volumes remain suppressed by insurance costs, operational hazards, and the shift of Saudi crude exports toward alternative routes. These developments underpin trader consensus around the sub-170 outcome for the week of 14 September, reflecting sustained but reduced throughput amid ongoing regional volatility.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$13,808Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Heightened Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including control of Perim Island and Mokha by mid-September 2026, have elevated war-risk premiums to 0.7-1.0% of hull value and prompted selective rerouting, particularly for Saudi-linked tonnage. AIS and Kpler data show Bab el-Mandeb commodity-vessel transits averaging roughly 24-28 per day in the 10-16 September window, well below the 2023 baseline near 61, with inbound counts dropping sharply on some days and dark transits rising. Major carriers have restored limited Suez services, yet overall volumes remain suppressed by insurance costs, operational hazards, and the shift of Saudi crude exports toward alternative routes. These developments underpin trader consensus around the sub-170 outcome for the week of 14 September, reflecting sustained but reduced throughput amid ongoing regional volatility.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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