Recent moderation in Mexico's headline inflation, which eased to 3.26% year-over-year in August 2026 from 3.94% in May amid softer non-core prices, underpins the tight contest between the 3.50-3.99% and 4.00-4.49% ranges for 2026 annual inflation. Trader consensus reflects Banco de México's data-dependent stance at the 6.50% policy rate, gradual core disinflation to around 3.9%, and sticky services inflation near 4.5%, offset by upside risks from peso volatility, potential trade disruptions, and food price shocks. September CPI and Banxico communications through year-end remain key swing factors for resolution probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui3.50% to 3.99% 44.5%
4.00% to 4.49% 37%
3.00% to 3.49% 9.5%
4.50% to 4.99% 8%
$69,371 Vol.
$69,371 Vol.
<2.50%
4%
2.50% to 2.99%
5%
3.00% to 3.49%
10%
3.50% to 3.99%
45%
4.00% to 4.49%
37%
4.50% to 4.99%
8%
5.00% to 5.49%
4%
5.50%+
1%
3.50% to 3.99% 44.5%
4.00% to 4.49% 37%
3.00% to 3.49% 9.5%
4.50% to 4.99% 8%
$69,371 Vol.
$69,371 Vol.
<2.50%
4%
2.50% to 2.99%
5%
3.00% to 3.49%
10%
3.50% to 3.99%
45%
4.00% to 4.49%
37%
4.50% to 4.99%
8%
5.00% to 5.49%
4%
5.50%+
1%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent moderation in Mexico's headline inflation, which eased to 3.26% year-over-year in August 2026 from 3.94% in May amid softer non-core prices, underpins the tight contest between the 3.50-3.99% and 4.00-4.49% ranges for 2026 annual inflation. Trader consensus reflects Banco de México's data-dependent stance at the 6.50% policy rate, gradual core disinflation to around 3.9%, and sticky services inflation near 4.5%, offset by upside risks from peso volatility, potential trade disruptions, and food price shocks. September CPI and Banxico communications through year-end remain key swing factors for resolution probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui



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