Strong August 2026 employment data, with 162,000 payroll gains and unemployment steady at 4.1%, alongside July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, have kept the federal funds rate path contested ahead of the December FOMC meeting. These resilient labor and price metrics have narrowed the gap between a hold at the current 3.50-3.75% target range and a 25 basis point hike, producing nearly equal market-implied probabilities. Hawkish Fed communications under Chair Warsh and supply-side inflation risks support the tightening tilt, while the pending August CPI release and September policy decision remain key swing factors that could shift the December consensus.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNo change 48%
25 bps increase 44%
25 bps decrease 6.6%
50+ bps increase 2.5%
$569,225 Vol.
$569,225 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
7%
No change
48%
25 bps increase
44%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 48%
25 bps increase 44%
25 bps decrease 6.6%
50+ bps increase 2.5%
$569,225 Vol.
$569,225 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$92,699 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$144,413 Vol.
7%
No change
$101,819 Vol.
48%
25 bps increase
$139,606 Vol.
44%
50+ bps increase
$90,687 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong August 2026 employment data, with 162,000 payroll gains and unemployment steady at 4.1%, alongside July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, have kept the federal funds rate path contested ahead of the December FOMC meeting. These resilient labor and price metrics have narrowed the gap between a hold at the current 3.50-3.75% target range and a 25 basis point hike, producing nearly equal market-implied probabilities. Hawkish Fed communications under Chair Warsh and supply-side inflation risks support the tightening tilt, while the pending August CPI release and September policy decision remain key swing factors that could shift the December consensus.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$569,225Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong August 2026 employment data, with 162,000 payroll gains and unemployment steady at 4.1%, alongside July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, have kept the federal funds rate path contested ahead of the December FOMC meeting. These resilient labor and price metrics have narrowed the gap between a hold at the current 3.50-3.75% target range and a 25 basis point hike, producing nearly equal market-implied probabilities. Hawkish Fed communications under Chair Warsh and supply-side inflation risks support the tightening tilt, while the pending August CPI release and September policy decision remain key swing factors that could shift the December consensus.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$569,225Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong August 2026 employment data, with 162,000 payroll gains and unemployment steady at 4.1%, alongside July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, have kept the federal funds rate path contested ahead of the December FOMC meeting. These resilient labor and price metrics have narrowed the gap between a hold at the current 3.50-3.75% target range and a 25 basis point hike, producing nearly equal market-implied probabilities. Hawkish Fed communications under Chair Warsh and supply-side inflation risks support the tightening tilt, while the pending August CPI release and September policy decision remain key swing factors that could shift the December consensus.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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