Recent labor market softening and moderating energy prices have anchored trader expectations for the September US CPI release, positioning a 3.6% annual rate as the leading outcome at 40% implied probability. Core service inflation and shelter costs remain key upside risks, while recent producer price data and retail sales figures suggest contained goods deflation. Market-implied odds around 3.5–3.7% reflect the current balance between progress on disinflation and sticky components, with the next FOMC meeting and any interim data releases serving as near-term catalysts that could shift positioning ahead of the official print.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui3.6% 40%
3.5% 24%
3.7% 21%
3.8% 4.9%
$22,598 Vol.
$22,598 Vol.
≤2.9%
1%
3.0%
2%
3.1%
3%
3.2%
4%
3.3%
1%
3.4%
5%
3.5%
24%
3.6%
40%
3.7%
21%
3.8%
5%
3.9%
2%
≥4.0%
3%
3.6% 40%
3.5% 24%
3.7% 21%
3.8% 4.9%
$22,598 Vol.
$22,598 Vol.
≤2.9%
1%
3.0%
2%
3.1%
3%
3.2%
4%
3.3%
1%
3.4%
5%
3.5%
24%
3.6%
40%
3.7%
21%
3.8%
5%
3.9%
2%
≥4.0%
3%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 11, 2026, 11:27 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent labor market softening and moderating energy prices have anchored trader expectations for the September US CPI release, positioning a 3.6% annual rate as the leading outcome at 40% implied probability. Core service inflation and shelter costs remain key upside risks, while recent producer price data and retail sales figures suggest contained goods deflation. Market-implied odds around 3.5–3.7% reflect the current balance between progress on disinflation and sticky components, with the next FOMC meeting and any interim data releases serving as near-term catalysts that could shift positioning ahead of the official print.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui

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