Strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific, expected to peak during the Atlantic season's height, have driven increased vertical wind shear and suppressed tropical cyclone formation and intensification across the basin. NOAA’s August update projects just 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for 2026 overall, well below the 1991–2020 averages, while Colorado State University’s June forecast assigns only a 24% chance of at least one major-hurricane landfall anywhere on the U.S. coastline. As of mid-September the season remains extremely quiet, with only tropical storms recorded and no hurricanes yet. Late-season development remains possible, but current steering patterns and atmospheric conditions continue to favor the market-implied 90.5% probability that no Category 4 system reaches the U.S. coast before year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या कोई श्रेणी 4 का तूफान 2027 से पहले अमेरिका में दस्तक देगा?
क्या कोई श्रेणी 4 का तूफान 2027 से पहले अमेरिका में दस्तक देगा?
हाँ
10% संभावना
$343,898 वॉल्यूम
$343,898 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
10% संभावना
$343,898 वॉल्यूम
$343,898 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific, expected to peak during the Atlantic season's height, have driven increased vertical wind shear and suppressed tropical cyclone formation and intensification across the basin. NOAA’s August update projects just 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for 2026 overall, well below the 1991–2020 averages, while Colorado State University’s June forecast assigns only a 24% chance of at least one major-hurricane landfall anywhere on the U.S. coastline. As of mid-September the season remains extremely quiet, with only tropical storms recorded and no hurricanes yet. Late-season development remains possible, but current steering patterns and atmospheric conditions continue to favor the market-implied 90.5% probability that no Category 4 system reaches the U.S. coast before year-end.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$343,898समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific, expected to peak during the Atlantic season's height, have driven increased vertical wind shear and suppressed tropical cyclone formation and intensification across the basin. NOAA’s August update projects just 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for 2026 overall, well below the 1991–2020 averages, while Colorado State University’s June forecast assigns only a 24% chance of at least one major-hurricane landfall anywhere on the U.S. coastline. As of mid-September the season remains extremely quiet, with only tropical storms recorded and no hurricanes yet. Late-season development remains possible, but current steering patterns and atmospheric conditions continue to favor the market-implied 90.5% probability that no Category 4 system reaches the U.S. coast before year-end.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
वॉल्यूम
$343,898समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...Strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific, expected to peak during the Atlantic season's height, have driven increased vertical wind shear and suppressed tropical cyclone formation and intensification across the basin. NOAA’s August update projects just 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for 2026 overall, well below the 1991–2020 averages, while Colorado State University’s June forecast assigns only a 24% chance of at least one major-hurricane landfall anywhere on the U.S. coastline. As of mid-September the season remains extremely quiet, with only tropical storms recorded and no hurricanes yet. Late-season development remains possible, but current steering patterns and atmospheric conditions continue to favor the market-implied 90.5% probability that no Category 4 system reaches the U.S. coast before year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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